Tensions run high in Israel as the threat of an attack from Iran and Hezbollah looms after the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and the IDF's assassination of Hezbollah's senior commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut.
But what will transpire once the Iranians and their Lebanon-based proxies attack will determine the rest of the war that began after the Hamas massacre of October 7.
All fronts will be affected from Iran, through Lebanon, Gaza, Yemen, Iraq, Syria and even the West Bank.
It is important to remember that, amid the evaluations and speculations of what might occur and when, and as the summit to finalize a cease-fire and hostage release deal nears, their fate as well as the ability to return residents of the north to their homes, lies in the balance, as does the threat of a regional war.
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah decided to attack Israel in response to Shukr's assassination. He poses a bigger threat than Iran and can cause much more damage to Israel.
But he will not rush to bring Lebanon into a war that would leave Beirut in as much ruin as Gaza. The Lebanese population does not want war and is pressuring the government and the Shi'ite terror group to avoid it.
They know well that the Israeli public has shelters to protect them and defense systems to thwart much of Hezbollah's fire.
The Lebanese have a dysfunctional government and an army that cows down to Hezbollah as well as a crippling economic crisis. "Lebanon is four times as anxious as Israel is," a senior IDF official told Ynet. "If Nasrallah makes a mistake and launches a disproportionate attack, Israel will have the opportunity to turn the tables and launch a war that will change the reality in its north."
The official said that the IDF will deliver a severe blow to Lebanon after the Galilee and Golan Heights have been under constant fire for the past 10 months.
A war with Hezbollah would mean Israelis will be under a more dangerous attack than they experienced from Hamas rockets fired from Gaza but that would be a price worth paying to remove the threat from the northern border. Still, such a war could compound the crisis of faith Israelis have had in their government and in the IDF since October 7.
Iran is also anxious, especially amid the U.S. military build-up in the region and the Israeli warnings that any attack would be followed by a response.
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American forces gathering in Middle East amid security tensions
(Photo: GONZALO FUENTES / POOL / AFP, הצי האמריקני, Ronda Churchill / AFP)
The realization that something has changed in Israel and the international coalition that has gathered to protect it, has given the ayatollahs pause. They still seek revenge but they are also wary of an Israeli retaliation that could shake their own failed economy and threaten the regime.
The failure of the Iranian attack on Israel in April give more reason for doubt and the Iranians do not want to be seen again as unable to deal a blow on the "Zionist Satan."