It is difficult to bridge the gap between a deadly day in the north and rocket fire toward the center of the country, and the optimistic headlines in the evening, as if a deal in Lebanon is very close. On one hand, the IDF tells the residents of the line of contact in the north that they can return home. On the other hand, two civilians are killed in a deadly rocket barrage to Nahariya, and only thanks to the extraordinary resourcefulness of a responsible kindergarten teacher, a huge disaster was avoided in Nesher.
On the one hand, the new defense minister declared "We have defeated Hezbollah", and on the other hand, the terrorist organization does not act as if this is the case. On the contrary, after a series of blows that shook it to the core, Hezbollah is trying to restore capabilities and burn in the consciousness that even if the war ends, it has recorded achievements in it.
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Rocket barrage to Nahariya scored a direct hit on a warehouse, killing 2
(Photo: Gil Nehushtan)
Therefore, it is important to emphasize that, beyond the positive messages of U.S. special envoy Amos Hochstein, there remains a dramatic bone of contention: The freedom that Israel will be given to act in a situation where Hezbollah violates the agreements. This is the only question that separates an Israeli victory from a resounding failure. If, for example, it is determined in a cease-fire agreement that its enforcement will be carried out by one or another multinational force and the Lebanese army, the meaning is that the residents of the north are being invited to come to their evacuated houses and take away their last belongings, because they will not have any sense of security there. And the prime minister should consider talking to the residents of the north and assure them that the IDF will protect them and prevent not only the return of the Radwan force to the villages, but also prevent a renewed strengthening of Hezbollah.
Along with the pain and anger at the results of Hezbollah's barrage to Nahariya on Tuesday, the data indicates a drop in the scope of firing (less than 50 launches after a day of more than 200) toward the northern settlements, mainly to the Haifa Bay area. On the other hand, the IDF raised the bar of offensive activity and the Air Force returned to attack in Daheih, the nerve center of Hezbollah. More than 10 rocket production sites were bombed, as part of the ongoing effort in recent months to destroy most of the missile production sites and munitions warehouses established in the last 20 years under the civilian buildings in the heart of the residential district. The IDF's Intelligence Division has managed to compile an in-depth and broad picture of those terror infrastructures and the systematic attacks have contributed to reducing the threat to Israel.
In numbers, it can be said that Hezbollah went into the campaign with about 45,000 short-range missiles and now has a little over 10,000 left. Of an arsenal of 5,000 medium-range rockets, less than 1,000 remain. The ballistic and precision missiles, which were considered a very serious threat to large parts of Israel, were reduced from hundreds to dozens. It also has a number of surface-to-air missiles left, after an effort by the IDF to focus on destroying them. In total, the IDF estimates that 80% of Hezbollah's rocket arsenal is no longer there. But even with its current firepower, Hezbollah remains a serious threat to the home front.
Along with the multiple attacks Tuesday - about 100 targets according to the IDF, it is evident that the military has also returned to maneuvering on the ground after 10 long and dangerous days of standing still. However, the enthusiastic announcements of the IDF spokesman are misleading: Most of the reserve forces have already been released to their homes and a real expansion of the operation will not take place soon, but there has been movement into an area where the forces have not operated so far.
This still does not satisfy the municipal mayors in the north, who demand the expansion of the operation. Former IDF chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot also believes that the ground operation is insufficient. The person who was the head of the Operations Division in the Second Lebanon War (and one of the few in the General Staff who received compliments for his performance) believes that the operation should have started with a maneuver deeper into Lebanon and from there moved backwards to the contact line, in order to ensure the removal of the anti-tank missile threat to the residents. According to the winds blowing from the U.S. after the last week's elections and toward the new administration, the political echelon and within it the new defense minister will have to make a difficult decision.
Rocket attack on Nahariya
Defense Minister Israel Katz's launch week in the most complicated office of all was caught Tuesday night in the line of fire of the most explosive issue of all: The IDF did not wait for instructions and announced it will issue 7,000 draft orders to men from the ultra-Orthodox sector, in accordance with the instructions of fired minister Yoav Gallant. Of course, such an announcement spurred the ultra-Orthodox lawmakers in the Knesset, who are still licking the wounds of the defunct day care law, and there were also those in ruling Likud Party who attacked the decision.
The IDF says that the operation to draft the haredim is being carried out in accordance with the law and that no other instruction was given by the minister in charge. The legal advisor to the government also announced Tuesday night that the orders are required in order to comply with the provisions of the law. Naturally, the new defense minister is still learning the details and his course will have to be accelerated: the shortage of soldiers is glaring and the frustration among the serving public is real.
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