Senior Israeli officials said the negotiations on a cease-fire deal in Lebanon are "in advanced stages." White House special envoy Amos Hochstein may travel to Israel and Lebanon before the November 5 U.S. presidential elections, to attempt to reach final agreements.
If the talks advance, the IDF will begin to withdraw most of its troops and redeploy forces in South Lebanon and leave areas where their mission to remove the threat from Radwan forces, has been completed, and likely remain only where there is tactical significance.
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Benjamin Netanyahu, Amos Hochstein Hassan Nasrallah
(Photo: Ronen Zvulun / AFP, Aziz Taher / Shutterstock, Reuters)
The officials in Israel said that Lebanon's situation has completely changed after the IDF offensive and that there is an agreement in Beirut to disconnect both the Lebanon and Gazan fronts. They stressed the fact that fighting would continue while negotiations are ongoing and until they are completed. Western intelligence sources believe Iran would allow Hezbollah to agree to a ceasefire, and perhaps even encourage it, even if the fighting in Gaza does not end.
The Israeli officials said a cease-fire agreement would begin with a 60-day acclimation period during which Hezbollah and the IDF withhold their fire and the Lebanese army will deploy to the south, while a new mechanism to supervise the region will be considered but there will be no new resolution passed in the UN Security Council.
French and American officials said recently that Hezbollah, which suffered severe blows and lost all of its leadership, has been bolstered in the past two weeks, by the growing number of casualties among IDF soldiers. "This is an opportunity that must not be missed," they said.
The proposed deal to be agreed by Israel, Lebanon, the U.S. and others, includes three components. The first is a wider implementation of UN resolution 1701, passed after the 2006 Second Lebanon War, that would ensure there would be no Hezbollah terrorists south of the Litani River, and at a significant distance from Metula. Lebanon's army is to deploy 5,000 to 10,000 troops along the border. UNIFIL forces will be increased, perhaps some, replaced by French, British and German forces. Israel has approached those countries to see if they would agree.
The second component is the establishment of an international mechanism to supervise the area and consider violation claims by any of the sides. Israeli officials said the U.S> has agreed that if Hezbollah violates the agreement, for example by building fortifications south of the Litani, and the Lebanese army or UNIFIL fail to quickly respond, the IDF would be able to take prolonged action to remove the threat.
Israel asked for a letter from U.S. President Joe Biden, stating Israel's right to self-defense, making it clear that the IDF would be able to act. American officials did not respond to questions on the matter.
IDF and Lebanon army troops
The third component in the agreement being negotiated is preventing Hezbollah from rearming. This means blocking military means, to be identified as banned, from being brought in by air, land or sea. Russia expressed a willingness to assist in implementing the agreement and is destined to play a part in stabilizing the region in Lebanon and Syria. "The Russians will have a special role in preventing further escalation," a foreign source said.
Israel will engage with the Kremlin directly and is interested in Russian participation, in the hopes that it would contribute to the agreement's implementation and also to reduce its dependence on U.S. involvement.
Netanyahu emissaries have been trying to enlist other countries to join supervision roles in the pending agreement. Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer has been working with U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan while Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has discussed the matter with Hochstein.
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