While Israel is distracting itself with domestic finance and crime troubles, the Palestinian Authority is dealing with events which could have great significance on the future of the security situation. Some of the events playing out are in fact in the benefit of Israel, which is inserting itself more and more in the security matters of the PA.
However, three dominant trends have been identified amongst Palestinians throughout the West Bank, which are giving Israel reasons to worry about its security stability.
The first dispute emerging on the horizon is Hamas' strategic efforts to gain legitimization as a political body and become dominant amongst West Bank's Palestinians.
This movement aims to take over the PA and the Palestine Liberation Organization, considered the most legitimate representative body of Palestinians in the West Bank, Gaza, and throughout the Palestinian diaspora altogether. Hamas, like the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, doesn't have foothold within the PLO, which unites the older and more established Palestinian factions.
The second issue is weakening of the national legitimacy and support of the PA and especially its long-term leader Mahmoud Abbas, who throughout his reign has harmed the PA's governing ability, thus sabotaging the financial state and law enforcement in the West Bank. The dysfunctionality of the PA and its security mechanisms helped strengthen the status of Hamas amongst West Bank's Palestinians, and fester more terrorist and nationalistic attacks against Israel and its settlements.
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Defense Minister Benny Gantz and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas
(Photo: Reuters, Avi Mualem)
The third matter regards the worrying forecast of what will go down once Abbas finally resigns as PA's president and is no longer on the political arena. The worst case scenario would be that the fight for leadership leads to anarchy that would translate into violence against Israel and its civilians.
In addition, this anarchy might cause financial crisis amongst Palestinians and create extreme militias that would fight to avenge their previous leader. This would also allow Hamas to step in the political vacuum and take control, killing any chance of reaching a political solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict.
The Shin Bet and other domestic security forces are preparing for the worst case scenario when it comes to "the day after Abbas". The Israeli government is targeting the issue with two mechanisms: strengthening the PA by improving the quality of life for Palestinians in the West Bank, and attempting to set up a transition of power from Abbas to one of his close associates.
The first method of improving the financial situation and overall quality of life for the Palestinians will hopefully help Abbas recover and gain back national political support. These improvements will also act as incentives for him and his security forces to tighten Fatah's hold in areas where it has loosened - especially in the refugee camps and political institutions belonging to the Fatah movement.
For the Palestinians residing in the West Bank, this would create incentives for Palestinians in the West Bank to rein in violent elements in the area in an effort to step in to the leadership vacuum.
Israel is even attempting to get the Biden administration and European government to help in this endeavor.
The second, and more crucial method is meant to avoid calamitous anarchy in the post-Abbas era by constructing a smooth transition to a reasonable successor. Abbas today acts as the PLO chairman, the president of the PA, and head of the Fatah movement. Officials in Bennet's government and Israeli security bodies are working together with Fatah officials to appoint a group leadership that will divide these responsibilities between them. The goal is for this to group to harmoniously cooperate with each other and make way for the PA and PLO to function as a government.
Abbas has expressed support for this plan on condition that his successors will be amongst his trustees. Therefore, steps are being taken towards uncovering and appointing individuals fit for this role. Although nothing is official, the following names have come up: Hussein Al-Sheik (minister of civil Affairs) who is considered Abbas' number two, and Majed Farage (current intelligence chief).
The PA is resisting the appointment of Al-Sheik due to rumors of sexual misconduct. Still so, one of the two is meant to legally be granted at least one of the leadership roles that Abbas currently assumes.
The Israeli government cannot openly back and express support towards Palestinian leaders. This would potentially lead them to be pictured as Israel's puppets, and thus lose national legitimacy. Therefore, most interactions regarding this matter are done behind closed doors and masked with other political motives.
The good news is that Israeli efforts in the West Bank are proving to be successful. Largely thanks to cooperation mechanisms between Palestinian bodies and the IDF and the Shin Bet. Thanks to their efforts, many of Hamas' strategies in the West Bank have been disrupted, and their foundation for legitimacy isn't thriving.
More so, the first initiative of improving Palestinian quality of life has already proven to increase the legitimacy of the PA and Abbas. According to surveys conducted by Khalil Shkaki - from the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research - the popularity of Hamas peaked in May 2021 during and after "Operation Guardians of the Walls," while the public support of the PA and Fatah movement were at an all-time low.
In December 2021, seven months after the end of the Gaza war, the data was entirely different. Public support leans much more towards the PA and Fatah than towards Hamas. Abbas and the Fatah movement have also shown great improvement on the political arena, with the PA chief succeed in shifting political opinion closer to his viewpoint and towards his interests.
However, the fight for power is far from over, and there is still potential for things to take a turn towards anarchy and violence. Within the Fatah military branch there are groups which determine their own jurisdiction and answer to local "bosses". These groups have attacked the IDF, and their members have been killed or detained through missions of the Shin Bet, Yamam, and IDF. By eliminating extremists within Fatah, Abbas's governance and legitimacy is meant to continue to prosper.
On another note, since Operation Guardians of the Wall, the Gaza Strip has seen relatively calm in the past eight months. The Israeli residents living near the enclave's border, aside from several clashes, are mostly undisturbed.
Yahya Sinwar, Hamas' leader in Gaza, who boasted of his victory after the operation, seemed to calm down. Meanwhile, Hamas is allowing its military sector to recover, while attempting to gain support of Arabs in Lebanon and Turkey in igniting an intifada in the West Bank.
Israel is still initiating plans to try to help Gaza recover financially and improve their quality of life in hopes that it will bring long-term tranquility to both sides.
Nonetheless, Hamas still poses a threat of a terrorist organization, hence Israel's top priority is to control its expansion into the West Bank as much as possible.