Following the launch of hundreds of rockets and UAVs into Israeli territory, Hezbollah Director-General Hassan Nasrallah couldn't wait to break out the champagne to celebrate the Shiite organization's revenge attack for Israel's assassination of Fuad Shukr in Beirut. Explaining the delay in Hezbollah's response, Nasrallah said he was weighing his options so as not to hurt any possible breakthrough in the Cairo negotiations to reach a hostage release and cease-fire deal between Israel and Hamas.
In near-unequivocal fashion, that reticence from Hezbollah indicates the group's inclination toward ending the conflict, at least partially. And that is exactly what Yahya Sinwar is worried about. In his most hopeful of fantasies, the embattled Hamas chief has been envisioning a regional Jihad against Israel with the Iranian proxy backing up his every move. Additionally, this just might help pave the way to a more advantageous cease-fire as far as Israel is concerned.
Keep in mind, though, that the scenario playing out now could have been radically different. Should Hezbollah's efforts have been more effective, to the extent it would cause significant civilian casualties, we would now have front row seats to a full-scale war playing out mostly within Lebanese territory.
In effect, Nasrallah continues to have his cake and eat it too as he and Hezbollah continue to carry out the policies of October 8, 2023. His skirmishes in northern Israel supposedly send a message that he hasn't abandoned the Palestinian people in their struggle against the "Zionist occupation," while at the same time staying just shy of a full-scale war neither he nor the Lebanese people are really interested in.
Yes, it's most definitely walking a tightrope. Perhaps too tight. As we saw with the Majdal Shams attack, the slightest navigational error can stir things up considerably. Both Israel and Hezbollah are standing in a room full of gasoline, holding a lighter.
Lebanon was and remains the most substantial of arenas for Israel to keep focus on, with Hezbollah standing as the focal point. The terrorist organization is significantly stronger than Hamas and much more well-equipped. Gaza is by no means a forgotten threat, but it is secondary at the moment, given the deep pain Hamas is experiencing with IDF's relentless military campaign.
But it is also what Hezbollah is counting on. Since the Hamas threat is ongoing, the Shiite organization is banking on Israel's hesitancy toward a dual-arena military campaign. That's why Israeli decision makers, and Netanyahu chief among them, must clearly prioritize Israel's various struggles, and the ongoing negotiations with Hamas is a means to an end. A signed deal couldn't suspend all northern skirmishes at once. The issue is different, and asks a question that no one knows for sure - is Netanyahu more focused on hostage retrieval or coalition unity?
And yet, while Israel woke up Sunday to being on the cusp of war, soldiers dying in Gaza, more terrorist attacks in the West Bank and 109 hostages still languishing in Hamas captivity, the far-right Otzma Yehudit, or Jewish Power, party knows who the "real" enemy is - Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar. The party's latest ad heavily criticized Bar in the midst of war. Ben-Gvir and his ilk are making it abundantly clear they can't be trusted to run even a hot dog stand, choosing the most irresponsible courses of action in the most unfortunate times.
However, as convenient as blaming it all on Ben-Gvir may seem, the fact of the matter is that those closest to Netanyahu aren't much better, also lobbing verbal grenades against Ronen Bar, IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevy and others. These are cowardly acts by some who are hoping to replace Bar at Netanyahu's behest. All they'll find, though, is that they've become a "usual idiot" statistic, meant to be forgotten.