The failure of the Iran attack on Israel in the present-day
The Iranian barrage was a complete failure. However, it also has implications that could put the Middle East region in danger, and possibly the entire world. Indeed, the Iranian attack that was launched on the night between April 13th and 14th was reminiscent of 1991 for author Brigadier General (res.) Amir Avivi.
That same year the Gulf War had begun, in which for the first time ballistic missiles were fired from Iraq into Israeli territory. The State of Israel at the time had no way of coping with such a threat. In the aftermath of the Gulf War Israel realized that it had to establish a defensive net over the country’s airspace to be able to independently cope with future threats.
Almost all Iranian missiles were intercepted – a victory for Israel’s defense systems
This latest massive attack by Iran included over 300 launches of UAVs, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles. That said, according to foreign media reports, roughly half of the rockets disintegrated on their way toward Israel.
This is indicative of the relatively low level of fitness for the purpose of the Iranian system. It was the ultimate test for Israel as the first time the network was required to defend against munitions being launched directly from Iranian soil.
Despite the immense challenge, the State of Israel, combined with the efforts of the Americans and Jordanians, succeeded in intercepting 99% of the barrage. This is a historic, unprecedented achievement from the defensive perspective, however, it is important to understand that this event has major implications that are going to impact the overall conflict.
Iran’s attack exposes its true nature to the world
The second opportunity this Iranian attack produced relates to world public opinion. This attack exposed the true nature of Iran in all its malice. From now on it is unequivocally clear just how dangerous a threat Iran is to the world. From the Iranian side, this attack was a tremendous strategic mistake since now both Europe and the United States realize that they seriously need to clip Iran’s wings.
On the morning after the attack, the G7 convened and all the leaders of the industrialized countries outright condemned Iran. There may well be opportunities now to renew the drive for painful sanctions imposed on Iran on all matters related to the development of their nuclear capabilities. Such sanctions will not only slow down its military force buildup but will also deal a severe blow to the languishing Iranian economy, thereby posing a potent threat to the entire regime.
Israel is now perceived again as the victim, not the aggressor
Arab countries opposed to Iran, now realize that Iran is the snake’s head, and that they must join forces against it. The third opportunity we have been given, therefore, is the added impetus of allying with the Saudis and the entire Sunni world to counteract the dangers Iran poses to the Middle East region. In all, following this attack, Israel itself has achieved a reversal of the narrative that it is the aggressor. Israel is once again now perceived as the victim.
U.S. indecisiveness in responding to Iran’s threat heightens the risk of global escalations
The unwillingness on the part of the United States to present a clear military threat in the region or to attack Iran meanwhile has severely impaired its own deterrent capabilities. This is what paved the way for this attack in the first place.
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Russian President Vladimir Putin and Supreme Leader of North Korea Kim Jong Un
(Photo: Kristina Kormilitsyna / POOL / AFP)
However, the real problem lies well beyond Iranian borders. The great danger is that Russia, China and North Korea, too, are watching this indecisiveness of the Americans and they sense they have sweeping freedom to operate along any front of their choice. Should Russia decide to ramp up its offensive in Ukraine and even move it into other regions of Europe, we are going to find ourselves on the verge of a third world war.
Israel must be ready to respond and needs more independence to do so
In contrast to this American passivity, the State of Israel is compelled to respond to Iranian attacks. These responses do not necessarily need to be immediate – they should come at a time and place best suited to Israel’s interests and priorities as even after the Iranian threat is lifted, the State of Israel will need to continue dealing with other enemies.
To ensure our ability to ensure our security by ourselves, the State of Israel must consequently reduce its dependence on external factors. First and foremost, there is a need to invest in the defense industry and in its manufacturing capacity. It must secure sizable stockpiles and spare parts to free us from reliance on aid from foreign countries to produce critical spare parts and to cope with restrictions, should these be imposed.
Similarly, we must seek independence in the construction and agriculture sectors to guarantee food security and to safeguard our agricultural production capacity without having to rely on foreign products or workers, and first and foremost we must not rely on Palestinian labor.
Amir AviviPhoto: Yariv KatzIn conclusion, we now see that wars can last for years and that we need to maintain a smart, large army for this reason. Besides increasing our independence, we must strengthen alliances. The stronger and more independent we are, the greater our ability to form meaningful alliances.
- Brigadir General (res.) Amir Avivi is the founder and chairman of the Israel Defense And Security Forum (IDSF).