The downing of an Israeli UAV by a Hezbollah surface-to-air missile; the elimination of the head of Hezbollah's eastern sector, Hassan Salama; further aerial strikes by IDF in southern Lebanon; and a barrage of over 40 rockets toward several northern Israeli communities in the Golan Heights – All of these serve as clear indication that an escalation on Israel’s northern front is ramping up, and any miscalculation by either side can bring about an all-out war.
IDF eliminating Hassan Salama
(Video: IDF Spokesperson's Unit)
On the surface, this is nothing we haven’t seen before. A reconnaissance UAV by the Israeli Air Force, circling in Lebanese skies, was attacked by an Iranian-made short-range missile. An Israeli missile array downed the anti-tank missile launched by Hezbollah that was swiftly followed by a second attempt from the Iranian proxy, this time bearing fruit. The Israeli drone was used for aerial surveillance, and was likely armed with missiles as well. As far as Israel is concerned, this sort of provocation merits a response, as ignoring it would likely pave the way to Hezbollah constantly challenging IDF freedom of movement in Lebanese skies.
This Israeli attack, launched some 60 miles north of Metula, brought about a response of over 40 rockets and missiles launched by Hezbollah toward communities in the Golan Heights. It’s likely Hezbollah chose that exact location knowing that most of its residents have not yet been evacuated, and was clearly hoping for the maximum amount of civilian casualties possible.
Hezbollah is still fervently sticking to the game of one-upping Israel, or at least matching every Israeli strike with one of its own. However, even if we are able to understand and appreciate the logic behind the string of events that are transpiring on our northern front, and even if you take into account that the number of Hezbollah casualties is not particularly high, it is clear the rope is being stretched to its breaking point, which could culminate in the kind of escalation that would throw a wrench into Israel efforts to bring back the rest of the hostages that are still in captivity in Gaza.