It is about time to state that as long as Israel maintains its nuclear monopoly in the Middle East, no combination of external fronts can threaten its existence militarily. In fact, by some measures, the IDF’s superiority over Israel’s enemies is growing.
However, Israel faces an existential threat due to two other fronts— the seemingly unbridgeable and expanding internal divisions within the Israeli public, and the apparently deepening schisms between the Netanyahu government and the IDF’s top brass.
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Gallant, Netanyahu, Halevi
(Photo: Alex Kolomoisky, IDF Spokesperson's Unit, Ariel Hermoni / IMoD)
Not only are Israel’s domestic fronts potentially calamitous by themselves, but it is almost certain that the country’s external enemies will seize upon the unrest to advance their goal of annihilating the Jewish state.
For example, it is all but certain that Hamas advanced the date of its October 7 monstrous attack to take advantage of the growing domestic unrest inside Israel. Apparently, Hamas was particularly attuned to the growing manifestations of refusal by reserve soldiers to train and serve in elite units of the IDF.
Yet, aside from concerns over such “doomsday” scenarios, Israel’s evolving domestic fronts have already produced strategic consequences. First, the sharp divisions within Israeli society have encouraged Israel’s enemies to prolong their armed “resistance” to the “ false and criminal Zionist regime.”
The longer-lasting and deeper the internal schisms, the greater the confidence among Israel’s enemies that attrition warfare is the best strategy. They will hope that many Israelis who already question the legitimacy and competence of their current leaders will increasingly doubt the necessity, purpose, and costs of a prolonged conflict.
For example, Hassan Nasrallah in a speech aired on his organization’s Al Manar TV on March 14, 2024, declared ”The enemy’s army is exhausted on all fronts… Victory and triumph go to those who are patient and endure, and the matter needs some time. The enemy’s society is beginning to tire and will be forced to stop the aggression and acknowledge its failure.”
Yahya Sinwar was similarly watching for signs of attrition among the Israeli public. In a message he purportedly congratulated the Yemeni Houthis for firing a ballistic missile into Israel, reported by the Houthi Al-Massirah TV on September 16. The Hamas chief wrote: "I assure you that the resistance is in a good state, we have prepared ourselves to wage a long draining battle that will break the political will of the enemy, just as Al-Aqsa Flood [i.e. the October 7 attack] broke his military will. Our joint efforts with you and our brothers in the brave resistance in Lebanon and the Islamic resistance in Iraq will dismantle this enemy and cause him defeat.”
Recently, Palestinian terrorist leaders have also been claiming that their “resistance “ has united the Arab-Muslim world, as evidenced by the multi-front “war“ waged against the “Zionist usurpers”, while the opposite process of ever-widening fractures and divisions has been plaguing Israel. The outcome, according to Palestinian terrorist leaders is inevitable— Israel’s downfall is just a matter of time.
Second, the growing unrest has invited the enemies of Israel to initiate operations that actively seek to further erode the public’s confidence in its government and undermine its morale to precipitate total societal collapse.
Thus, amid the war in Gaza, Israeli security authorities have identified attempts by Hamas and other terror groups in the West Bank to return to carry out suicide attacks. Last March a would-be suicide bomber was killed while trying to infiltrate into Israel from the West Bank.
On August 19, Hamas claimed responsibility for an explosion in Tel Aviv that killed the suspected attacker and injured a civilian. Hamas said this was a “martyrdom operation” conducted as a joint operation with the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and vowed that similar attacks would follow.
According to Sky News Arabia, on August 29, 2024, top Hamas official Khaled Mashal said during an address at a conference in Istanbul, Turkey, that the Hamas terror group wanted to “return to [suicide] operations.”
Israel’s Shin Bet announced on September 17 that it had foiled an attack against a “senior security figure” in Tel Aviv to be carried out by Hezbollah. According to Ynet “The security forces estimate that Hezbollah has begun to carry out direct attack attempts inside Israeli territory…[since] Hezbollah believes that it is appropriate to carry out hits that will harm the morale of the public in Israel, which is already divided by internal disputes.”
Third, the prolongation of the conflict and the spreading unrest in the country may end up producing another anti-Israel front. It may be recalled that as soon as Hamas launched its attack on October 7, Mohammad Deif, Hamas' former military commander, issued a statement calling it “the day of the great revolution” and urging Israeli Arabs to take up arms. He exhorted Arabs in Jerusalem, the Negev, and the Galilee to “set the earth on fire under the feet of the occupiers.”
While Israeli Arabs have so far kept largely out of the ongoing hostilities a spreading disorder inside Israel could entice them to respond to this and other such calls and “rise up” to “ reclaim their lands.”
Fourth, a country in the grips of sustained political turmoil opens itself to various manipulations by friends and foes alike. For example, the intense psychological warfare campaigns waged against Israelis continuously by Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran itself are undoubtedly geared to aggravate the divisions within the Israeli public.
Indeed, the more desperate their battlefield position become the greater the allure for Islamists of “soft weapons” involving psychological warfare and perception management aimed to turn the Israeli public against its government and ensure the country was engulfed in civil strife. Tactically the idea is to divert the Israeli security forces from operating against external threats. Strategically the upheaval is touted as confirmation of the long championed Islamist propaganda “prophesying” the coming destruction of the state.
Accordingly, there is no question that Hamas’ holding on to Israeli hostages is increasingly its prime leftover weapon. It closely monitors the protest in Israel in favor of a cease-fire and a hostage release deal actively seeking to galvanize the unrest.
Arab officials who mediated the negotiations and officials with direct ties to Hamas said that the organization ordered its hostage-takers to frequently take pictures and videos of the hostages to showcase their despondency
The Wall Street Journal reported on September 7 that Hamas and other terrorist organizations in Gaza invested much effort in taking videos of the October 7 hostages, even in the midst of intense fighting. The aim is to stoke the Israeli public’s opposition to the war and put pressure on Netanyahu’s government to stop its offensive to reach a hostage-release deal which in turn would ensure the organization’s survival.
The Journal said Arab officials who mediated the negotiations and officials with direct ties to Hamas said that the organization ordered its hostage-takers to frequently take pictures and videos of the hostages to showcase their despondency and their dire need to return home. The materials were kept in the organization's archives and later sent to teams outside Gaza.
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, a long-time adherent of disinformation, brainwashing, and hype, was pleased. He told then Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh last March “The propaganda and media activities of the Palestinian resistance have been very good so far, and ahead of the Zionist enemy [Israel], and more action should be taken in this field.”
By the same token, the Biden administration has at times sought to capitalize on the political divisions inside Israel to further its own agenda even in contradiction to the Jerusalem government’s position.
Fifth, political instability tends to scare off potential domestic and foreign investors as well as trade partners. In early February 2024, Moody’s, a global credit rating agency, downgraded Israel's credit rating, citing material political and fiscal risks for the country. it said the cut was necessary due to “[ a rise in] political risk and weaken[ing of] Israel's executive and legislative institutions…”
Moreover, a military command at loggerheads with its political leadership signals to Israel’s enemies disarray and indecisiveness among the country’s top decision-makers which would likely embolden them. It could jeopardize Israel’s international standing and military-to-military ties. The IDF’s arms and munitions pipeline could also be impacted as foreign suppliers may be reluctant to provide war materiel unsure of its final destination and use.
Sixth, Israel’s domestic divisions could have strategic consequences globally. For example, in early September, the U.S. Justice Department alleged that a Russian disinformation campaign sought to exacerbate tensions among Israelis and Jews in the United States to influence voters in the 2024 U.S. presidential election and twist public opinion on the Ukraine war.
Justice Department prosecutors unveiled a widespread Russian operation it has dubbed “Doppelganger” to “covertly spread Russian government propaganda” through fake social media profiles, fabricated influencers, AI, and cybersquatting, to influence public opinion.
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Russian propaganda threatens US election
(Photo: Kevin Dietsch/AFP, REUTERS/Brian Snyder)
Accordingly, one tactic of the disinformation campaign was to “target Jewish communities across the globe, first and foremost in Israel and the U.S.” The Russian company Social Design Agency (SDA) which spearheaded the effort summarized its logic as follows: “influencing the [divided] public opinion of Israel will impact the public opinion of Jewish voters in the U.S. before the 2024 presidential elections.”
It is critically important to understand that, even without considering its last resort option, Israel’s conventional military superiority dooms any effort by Islamists to destroy it through cross-border attacks or even invasion. Simply put, the IDF maintains “escalation dominance” when it comes to confronting the “ring of fire” supposedly surrounding Israel and made of Iranian proxies.
IDF strikes Lebanon homes storing rocket launchers
(Video: IDF Spokesperson’s Unit)
Thus, the IDF could “climb” higher on the escalation ladder of possible military actions than its opponents. The Israeli military’s dominance holds true vis-a-vis each, or any combination, of the components of the Iran-sponsored “ring” as well as against Iran itself.
Islamists, whether in Tehran or Beirut, understand this reality quite well. Consequently, while the IDF is focused on destroying the capacity of Israel’s enemies to fight, Islamists are intent on undermining the will of Israelis to fight. Even the notion of Israel facing a “unity of fronts” is largely a manufactured fantasy that in practice carries little strategic significance and is touted to intimidate and depress Israelis (often with the unwitting help of the fear-mongering Israeli media). Under these circumstances, any sign of internal strife in Israel is a strategic force multiplier, especially when hyped to no end, and used as evidence that the otherwise counterproductive attrition strategy Islamists have adopted is actually working.
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Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
(Photo: (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via REUTERS)
At the minimum, the deepening divisions inside the country energize further, if not escalatory, attacks on Israel. As Iran's Khamenei said according to the semi-official Mehr News Agency on June 3, 2024: ”The Zionist regime is gradually melting in front of the eyes of the people of the world …Al-Aqsa Storm [Hamas’ designation of the October 7 attack] put the Zionist regime on a path, the end of which is nothing but its decay and destruction.”
Even if Israel’s enemies fail in their quest to embroil it in a full-fledged civil war, the detrimental processes already at work are generating a direful strategic outcome. Cumulatively Israel’s ability to resist, not to mention overcome, its external enemies is being chipped away daily.
At worst, if Israel’s internal cohesion continues to deteriorate and the public’s confidence in the IDF plummets further, a holocaust-reminiscent nightmare could become a realistic scenario.
- Dr. Avigdor Haselkorn is a strategic analyst. He has been published widely on national security issues.