The Sunni jihadist rebel offensive, coupled with the Syrian regime army's apparent helplessness, has triggered a chain reaction among Syria's various ethnic and religious groups, most of which are now successfully asserting control over their respective territories. Viewed in its entirety, this development appears favorable for Israel.
On Saturday, Syrian rebels announced their capture of Quneitra province, located near Israel’s border. The area is currently controlled by local villagers who have had connections with Israel, particularly as Israel provided medical aid to the wounded during the civil war.
Rebels announce capture of Quneitra province in southern Syria
However, there is a looming threat that Sunni jihadists from the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) movement could seize the area from the villagers. As a precaution, Israel is preparing for any such scenario, including conducting a large-scale military exercise Friday in northern Jordan Valley and southern Golan Heights. These jihadists have operated in the region before, and Israel, with the help of local villagers, had previously curbed their influence.
The jihadists have also captured Palmyra in central Syria, where an unusual Israeli-attributed strike last month reportedly killed at least 82 pro-Iran militia fighters and Hezbollah commanders. In this new reality, pro-Iranian militias are unlikely to establish themselves in the area, and Hezbollah operatives will find it challenging to command them—another apparent strategic advantage for Israel.
Meanwhile, behind the scenes, surprising developments are unfolding. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the Turkish military are supporting the two main rebel groups. However, the Biden administration has quietly joined the effort, not only to counter Erdoğan’s ambitions to dominate the Kurdish enclave in northern Syria but also—more crucially—to wrest control of the Euphrates River strongholds from Iran-loyal Shia militias.
In the area of Al-Bukamal, a critical border crossing between Iraq and Syria, lies the primary base of Iranian-aligned Iraqi and Afghan Shia militias. This location is also a key point in the land corridor through which Iranian supplies flow via Iraq into Syria and Lebanon.
The Kurdish-Arab SDF militia (Syrian Democratic Forces, primarily Kurdish but also including fighters from Arab tribes in Syria) has captured this area and another strategic location to the north in Deir ez-Zor.
Operating under the protection of 900 U.S. troops stationed at bases east of the Euphrates River, the SDF's control of Al-Bukamal and Deir ez-Zor effectively severs the overland supply route from Iran through Iraq and Syria into Lebanon. This represents a significant blow to Hezbollah, the Syrian regime and the Tehran-led Shia axis.
Inmates freed from Deir ez-Zor prison after withdrawal of Assad forces
The question remains whether the U.S.-backed Kurdish militia can maintain control over the areas it has seized. Another critical unknown is whether they have managed to capture the Imam Khomeini camp, established by Iran in Al-Bukamal as the central base for its loyal Shia militias.
It is likely that many of the Shia militias from this camp have rushed to aid the Assad regime in Hama and Homs, potentially forming a defensive line around Damascus. As a result, the forces left in Al-Bukamal may have been insufficient, allowing the Kurds to take control.
For Israel, it is crucial to influence the U.S. to continue supporting the Kurds and to ensure American forces remain in the region. At the same time, Israel seeks U.S. leverage on Erdoğan to prevent jihadist rebels from advancing toward the Golan Heights.
If this situation holds, it represents a major strategic gain for Israel’s security. Another positive development for Israel is the rebels’ control over southern Syria in the Daraa region, near southwestern Syria.
Israel's past aid and aspiration for control by locals
The Daraa region, which borders Israel and Jordan, is home to the main border crossing between the two countries in the city of Ramtha. Most notably, the rebels who have taken control of this area are locals—Sunni villagers and Druze villagers from the neighboring Sweida province. According to foreign reports, Israel maintained strong ties with these locals during the height of the Syrian Civil War.
Between 2015 and 2018, Israel provided them with both humanitarian and military aid, establishing a hospital and facilitating medical treatment within its borders. It is likely these local groups remain disinclined to act against Israel—perhaps even the opposite.
Additionally, the Daraa region, particularly around Tel Harra and the mountainous areas near the capital of Jabal al-Druze, Sweida, hosts radar and intelligence facilities used not only by the Syrian military but also by Iran and Hezbollah. If the locals and Druze who now control the area maintain their hold, it is unlikely Iran or Hezbollah will gain a foothold there.
The locals are Sunni Muslims, while Hezbollah and Iran are Shia. Daraa is a staunch Sunni Muslim province, and Sweida to its east is a Druze stronghold. While the Druze previously refrained from openly rebelling against Assad’s regime, they now appear to have shifted course, ousting Syrian forces from Sweida’s provincial capital. The Druze in this area maintain strong ties with their counterparts in Israel.
Critically, those now in control of the region are not from the jihadist HTS movement but are locals who reportedly hold favorable sentiments toward Israel, which previously provided them with aid and, according to foreign reports, light arms to defend themselves against the Syrian regime.
This area was initially retaken by the Syrian regime under a Russian-Syrian agreement designed to end the civil war. The deal placed Russian military police in charge of restoring order and preventing attacks against Israel and local residents by Syrian forces.
This arrangement was effective, as was the Russian-supervised air activity, which largely prevented clashes between Israeli, Russian and Syrian air forces near the border. A joint operations center was established to coordinate and avoid air incidents in the Golan Heights border region.
However, recent global media reports indicate that Russian ground outposts in the area have been dismantled. Russian forces, including military police, have reportedly relocated to the large Russian base in Khmeimim, southeast of the city of Latakia.
The implications of this situation are significant: Russian forces are no longer overseeing the region, leaving control in the hands of local rebels, the majority of whom are not jihadists.
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It’s important to note that in the Daraa region near Israel's border, there were—and still are—small pockets of Sunni jihadist rebels from the Jabhat al-Nusra organization, now part of a broader rebel coalition. These groups remain small and weak. While they have previously acted against Israel, local villagers have worked to restrain them, ensuring Israel continued its humanitarian aid. This appears to still be the case today.
However, the Daraa region poses its own challenges. If Sunni rebels advance dangerously close to Damascus, it could trigger a mass exodus of refugees toward the Israeli border, similar to events of the past decade. Back then, tens of thousands of refugees camped near Israel's border fence in the Golan Heights, prompting Israel to prepare to block any attempt to breach its territory—whether to escape danger or to harm Israel under rebel influence.
Rebels drag down statue of Assad's father in Daraa
Currently, there are no visible signs of refugees or armed jihadist groups near the Golan border. However, the threat persists. Developments in Syria are unfolding so rapidly that Israel must be ready for any potential scenario, even though the current situation near the Golan border appears relatively stable and positive from Israel’s perspective.
Shifting between allies ahead of brutal battles
Israel’s concerns about Syrian strategic weaponry falling into rebel hands have significantly subsided. According to foreign reports, Israel targeted Syria's main military-industrial complex near the town of al-Safira, southeast of Aleppo. This site stored missiles and production equipment, both Iranian and Syrian, and supplied weapons to Hezbollah.
Reports indicate that Israel carried out multiple strikes in the area and likely issued warnings through covert channels to rebels not to seize the site. Indeed, the rebels have stayed away.
Other Syrian military-industrial facilities, influenced by Iran and used to arm Hezbollah, are located in western Syria along the coastal region dominated by the Alawite sect. The jihadist rebels have not moved westward toward this area, instead focusing on taking control of the main north-south highway, the M5, which links Aleppo, Hama, Homs and Damascus.
This highway runs through Syria’s Sunni Muslim heartland, where residents are largely supportive of the rebels, unlike the Alawite- and Shia-majority coastal region, which opposes them. That region is also home to Russian bases, which the rebels have so far neither dared nor intended to attack.
The jihadist HTS rebels are advancing along the M5 highway, targeting Homs, Syria's third-largest city with a predominantly Sunni Muslim population. Homs and Hama have been sites of massacres committed by Hafez al-Assad and his son Bashar, starting in the 1980s and continuing into the past decade during the civil war.
Chemical weapons were extensively used against these areas, fueling immense hatred toward Assad. This animosity has facilitated the rebels' rapid progress, facing little resistance. Homs is likely to fall within the next one to two days.
Large convoys of Shia and Alawite residents have been seen fleeing Homs, fearing the jihadists. The Assad regime is currently trying to stabilize a defensive line around the city with the help of Hezbollah and pro-Iranian Shia militias sent by Tehran to bolster the regime.
If the rebels succeed in capturing Homs and its surroundings, they are expected to sever the Alawite-Shia enclave around Latakia and Tartus from Assad’s remaining stronghold in Damascus. The battles over the routes connecting Damascus to Latakia and Tartus, particularly around al-Qusayr and western Homs, are anticipated to be among the most brutal of the conflict.
Israel's interest: A weak Assad, not a defeated one
Syria's elite 4th Division, commanded by Maher al-Assad, the brother of President Bashar al-Assad, is likely focusing its efforts on maintaining control over key enclaves: Damascus, the coastal strongholds of Latakia and Tartus and the vital routes connecting them. These areas would provide a base for potential counteroffensives in the future.
Currently, Syria seems to be approaching a scenario where Assad retains control over Damascus and the Latakia-Tartus enclave while battling for Homs and al-Qusayr to maintain vital territorial links between the two regions. Hezbollah has reportedly deployed fighters, likely from its elite Radwan Force, to support Assad’s defense of these strongholds.
For Israel, a weakened Assad controlling these enclaves serves its strategic interest. This situation keeps jihadist forces engaged in fighting Assad rather than advancing toward areas near Israel’s border, where local rebels maintain a tenuous presence.
Meanwhile, along the Syria-Turkey border, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has sent the secular Syrian National Army, loyal to Ankara, to dismantle the Kurdish autonomous region of Rojava in northeastern Syria. This region is under the protection of U.S. forces and American airpower.
Erdoğan's campaign included the use of explosive drone swarms but was reportedly curtailed after the Biden administration intervened with a firm "Don't." As a result, the advance eastward from Idlib toward the Kurdish-held areas with U.S. bases has stalled.
This highlights the U.S.'s recent shift toward covert, behind-the-scenes action supported by credible military threats, achieving significant results. Currently, the U.S. and its Kurdish allies effectively control 40% of Syria’s territory in the northeast.
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Destruction in Syria's northwestern Idlib province; Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
(Photo: OMAR HAJ KADOUR / AFP, Andrew Harnik / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / AFP)
Assad’s regime retains limited control over Homs and its two key enclaves, while Sunni and Druze locals have taken over the southern provinces of Daraa and Sweida near Israel’s border.
For now, this situation is relatively favorable for Israel. However, with both Iran and Turkey still active and unpredictable, rapid changes remain possible.
Following the October 7 attack last year, Israel must remain on high alert in the Golan Heights, focusing on intelligence and air defense to respond to any unforeseen developments in Syria. The situation is fluid, and the final outcome is far from decided.