The IDF continues its preparations for a major Israeli offensive in Gaza and, together with the Shin Bet, is operating on many levels, including robust air strikes in Gaza, to facilitate ground entry without a heavy price for our forces.
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The airstrikes are intended to disrupt the defense, command and control systems of Hamas, to aid the intelligence effort, and to exact a price from Hamas members, especially from its commanders for the atrocities they committed in the communities surrounding Gaza.
At the same time, the IDF is working to create a "window of legitimacy" as wide as possible to carry out an effective attack in Gaza. This "window of legitimacy" is intended to give the army time and approval to carry out warfare when it enters Gaza. Unfortunately, the window is getting smaller and smaller as pictures of civilians in Gaza suffering from air force attacks reach the West.
The IDF's demand from the residents of the northern Gaza Strip to evacuate through humanitarian corridors to the south is the main means of proving to the global public opinion and to the Biden administration that Israel is acting within the framework of the international laws of war.
Hamas has also moved into position and is trying to get its fighters in Gaza into planned defensive formations. The Hamas political leaders in Lebanon, Turkey and Qatar are trying to expand the fighting to additional arenas in order to ease the pressure on the terrorists in Gaza and reduce the Israeli military effort. They are trying to get Hezbollah, the Palestinians in the refugee camps in Lebanon, the Palestinians in the West Bank, and Iran-backed militias, to join the fighting.
For now, Hamas has achieved partial success. According to all the signs and information that has been published, Iran and Hezbollah have not yet decided to join the war in full force, and there is a reasonable possibility that they will not launch a major attack on Israel in the future either. Those who are now trying to attack from the north in order to make it easier for Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza are Palestinians, members of Hamas and other organizations that operate from the refugee camps in southern Lebanon.
They do this with the approval of Hezbollah and under the cover of fire and unmanned aerial vehicles that Hezbollah launches from time to time. On Friday, the Iranian Foreign Minister visited Lebanon and met with Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah. In their statement, they talked about the "escalation" they are initiating but not about war, and in this case, these words have meaning.
The current pattern of action on the Lebanese border of cooperation between Hezbollah and the Palestinians will continue. Hezbollah gives its approval and cover to Palestinian terrorists as well as targets the IDF while sacrificing its own people.
However, most of the fighting, which is actually a campaign of harassment and attrition, is left to the members of the Palestinian organizations operating from Lebanon, led by Islamic Jihad and Hamas. Within this system of attrition, Hezbollah is also checking the readiness and alertness of the ground forces and air defense systems deployed by the IDF in the north. The unidentified objects that the air defense forces intercepted around Haifa were intended for exactly this.
The intentions of Hezbollah and Iran will be re-examined when Israel enters Gaza. This may be the turning point where Hezbollah and maybe even Iran will fully enter the fray, but that won't necessarily happen. There is a considerable probability that, after the entry of the IDF into Gaza, Hezbollah will only increase the current pattern of operation, but will remain below the threshold of war. The IDF is preparing for the worst possibility, a war on at least two fronts: the northern front and the Gaza front. Maybe even an increase in riots and attempted attacks from the West Bank.
W. Bank Jews 'try to help' but play into Hamas hands
In the West Bank, the IDF arrested hundreds of Palestinians, mainly members of Hamas but also members of the Islamic Jihad and Fatah. As a result of these arrests, and the consequent investigations, security forces were able to foil several attacks that Hamas members in the West Bank and Islamic Jihad in the West Bank attempted to carry out. Riots continue in the West Bank and in Jerusalem as a result of Hamas in Gaza calling on the West Bank Palestinians to further escalate the violence.
The IDF and the Shin Bet have allocated forces and resources to the IDF operations and they are succeeding for the time being both in thwarting the attacks and in preventing the riots from getting out of control. The Palestinian Authority security forces also operate from time to time, albeit with a very low profile. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas does not want to be portrayed as collaborating with Israel.
In the Arab sector in Israel, there are some expressions of support for Hamas and the Gazans, but for now, there are no unusual occurrences. The only unusual phenomenon is the various actions taken by Jews living in the West Bank, who try to supposedly "help" the Israel Defense Forces in independent policing and patrolling operations within Arab settlements and on the roads, while occasionally confronting the Palestinians living in the area.
The IDF takes these incidents seriously and tries to control them, partly through educating the locals. IDF and police commanders in the West Bank explain to the Jewish lawbreakers that taking the law into their own hands only incites West Bank Palestinians and plays into the hands of Hamas.
In the regional and strategic arena, two phenomena should be noted. One is the Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia, siding with the Palestinians in Gaza as a result of increasing pressure from the public. In Jordan, Palestinians are a majority, making up 70% of the population and many of whom are also supporters of Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood in general.
In Saudi Arabia, it is the clerics who made Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman announce on Friday that he is freezing the normalization negotiations with Israel in order to quell the militant clerics. Similar voices are also heard from Qatar, Iraq and, of course, Iran. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who leads a political party that skirts along the lines of the Muslim Brotherhood like Hamas, also published statements, as he has done many times in the past. For now, these are just words.
Missiles and drones from Syria, Iraq and possibly Yemen
At Israel's request and at the initiative of his administration, U.S. President Joe Biden is trying to strengthen Israeli deterrence by setting up an American presence and deterrence, especially against Iran and Hezbollah. This is a move that has operational significance, meaning a naval force that is ready to intercept missile barrages coming from Hezbollah or Iran and attack from the air, using planes that take off from American aircraft carriers and bases in the Middle East, including the F-35 squadron that was put on alert.
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USS Gerald Ford off the coast of Israel to show American support
(Photo: AFP PHOTO / US Department of Defense/US Navy/Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Jacob Mattingly)
The American forces are designed to deal with Shiite militias that Iran will activate from Syria, Iraq, possibly from Yemen and even Iran itself. These Iranian "proxies" will try to help Hamas in Gaza by launching missiles and attacking drones into the Israeli home front.
Regardless of the conflict in Gaza, the U.S. acts against these players. If they act against Israel, such as launching missiles at Israel by Katai'b Hezbollah in Iraq, the U.S. may attack them while the IDF attacks Hezbollah in Lebanon. The same is true about Iran.
In addition to this crucial support, the U.S. provides military aid in the form of supplying the IDF with sophisticated aerial weapons and Tamir interceptor missiles for the Iron Dome, which are currently in U.S. warehouses in Israel and in military bases. This supply of armaments is intended to ensure that the IDF will not have a shortage of precise air munition, intercept missiles and spare parts, if the IDF is forced to conduct a war on two or more fronts at the same time. Another method of aid is the political aid that the US gives to Israel both at the United Nations and through mobilizing support from its democratic allies in North America and Europe.
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Netanyahu and Blinken in joint press conference from Tel Aviv
(Photo: Jacquelyn Martin / POOL / AFP)
American aid is not given to us for free. The U.S. secretary of state and secretary of defense who arrived in Israel on Thursday, demand from us, while firmly standing by our side, that Israel will not act contrary to the international laws of war which are mainly intended to protect civilians. In a way, the U.S. serves as Israel's "kosher supervisors" in this regard.
The reserve units drafted for the war continue to prepare for their entry into Gaza, and the General Staff has already begun approving plans for the unit commanders. Although the issue of the abducted and missing persons is still far from being resolved, the date of ground entry is approaching.