While negotiations for a hostage deal are at a standstill and Israel feels hints of a "quagmire" in the Gaza Strip, it seems that in Iran preparations are already underway for the post-war period.
Recently, the head of the political bureau of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, visited Iran. It was his second visit to Tehran since October 7. Iran tried to hide his first visit in early November 2023 but was exposed by the IDF spokesperson. Shortly after the visit, Reuters reported that Iran's leader, Ali Khamenei, criticized the surprise timing of Haniyeh's visit after the outbreak of the war. Iran made it clear to Haniyeh during his first visit that Iran would not directly intervene in the war.
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Iranian president welcomes Ismail Haniyeh
(Photo: Iran's Presidency/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via REUTERS)
Haniyeh's second visit to Tehran was done differently. The Hamas leader received an official reception usually reserved for heads of state, including a red carpet leading to the Iranian Foreign Ministry, and signing the guestbook. This exceptional reception was noticed by Iranian commentators, who estimated that it intended to convey a clear message that Hamas will continue to be seen by Iran as the only legitimate representative of the Palestinian people.
During Haniyeh's visit, the secretary-general of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad also visited Iran. At a religious ceremony in Tehran's football stadium, Ziyad al-Nakhalah declared that the Palestinians would defeat Israel with the help of Islam, the Quran, and the Islamic Republic.
Amid increased communication and cooperation between Tehran and the heads of Palestinian terrorist organizations, the Shin Bet and the IDF reported on the thwarting of the smuggling of advanced weaponry from Iran to the West Bank that occurred last week. The special intelligence branch of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps was behind the smuggling attempt in Syria. The smuggling attempt provides further evidence of Iran's efforts to expand its activities and support terror in the West Bank.
For the past decade, Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has called for arming the West Bank, while increasing attempts by the IRGC to establish terror and intelligence infrastructures. The escalation of tensions between Iran and Israel has sharpened Tehran's need to expand its activities near Israel's borders, in an attempt to encircle it with terror cells, weaken it and undermine its security.
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IRGC aims to establish terror infrastructure around Israel's borders
(Photo: Reuters)
Furthermore, the Abraham Accords and the normalization process between Israel and Arab states are seen in Iran as a growing threat to its regional status and have created an opportunity to increase coordination between Palestinian terrorist organizations and other components in the "axis of resistance" around the struggle against the common enemy, Israel.
In recent months, security officials have warned that Iran continues to funnel money into the West Bank to fund the establishment of terror infrastructures and promote terror attacks. In March, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said that "Iran is trying to smuggle weapons, ammunition, training and information to the West Bank."
In light of the ongoing war in Gaza, the lack of a political alternative for Hamas, and the strategic standstill concerning the regional efforts against the "axis of resistance" led by Iran, Iran estimates Israel will fail to neutralize Hamas.
Through their ties with the leadership of Hamas and the Islamic Jihad, Iran aims to maintain its influence in the Palestinian arena even in a scenario where Hamas cannot maintain its position as the ruler in the Gaza Strip. So far, Iran notices that Israel's efforts to eliminate Hamas have failed, due to the diplomatic pressure on Israel and its growing international isolation, which, according to estimates, may lead to a cease-fire before Israel achieves its goals.
- Dr. Raz Zimmt is a senior researcher, specializing in Iran at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) and the Alliance Center for Iranian Studies at Tel Aviv University