After two weeks of spectacular military operations in Lebanon including feats taken straight from a spy thriller film, Israel finally took out the most powerful terrorist in the world: Hezbollah’s Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah.
Israel’s repeated strikes and operations against the Shia terror group have shown that Israeli decision-makers have decided to shift gears and be willing to take calculated risks to change the geopolitical balance of power.
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Hezbollah’s Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah
(Photo: Mohammad Kassir, Shutterstock)
For the first time, there is a sense that Israel is willing to go all the way for a decisive victory, leaving no stone unturned rather than kicking instead of pushing the problem of Hezbollah like a can down the road for the next generations of Israelis to deal with.
Israel is at a crossroads and has found a golden opportunity to finish off Hezbollah, potentially changing the fabric of Lebanon and the Iranian entrenchment on its northern borders from Lebanon and Syria.
Meanwhile, U.S. President Joe Biden, now a lame duck, has a much weaker leverage over Israel in attempting to hamstring Israel from dominating the escalator ladder. The U.S. is fully immersed in the election cycle and the White House signals that it is not too keen to divert attention and resources to another Middle East crisis it needs to “contain”.
On the other handits part, however, Iran is making strides in its attempts to assuage the West and get a new nuclear deal as reiterated by the New Iranian president. Iran cannot afford to get directly involved in a conflict with Israel right now when it needs the West.
According to reports, Iran declined to directly attack Israel and protect its proxy to the chagrin of Hezbollah. After the strikes on Friday in Beirut’s Dahieh quarter, Hezbollah’s infamous stronghold, the Dahieh in Beirut on Friday former IRGC commander and Minister of Interior Ahmad Vahidi has said in an interview with the Iranian national TV that every leader is replaceable, hinting that they have a successor to Nassralah. Iran's allies see it as abandoning them in the money time.
Israel now has the opportunity to further the wedge between Iran and its strongest proxy Hezbollah. With continued attacks against Hezbollah, Israel could force Iran to either allow it to finish off Hezbollah in order to save a potential nuclear deal or get involved and “kiss goodbye” a lucrative nuclear deal that would fill the Islamic Republic’s coffers. Neither of the choices would benefit Iran.
Moreover, a weakened Hezbollah coupled with the ecstatic swathes of the Syrian and Lebanese factions, who openly celebrate Nassralah’s demise, could be pushed and assisted into weakening Iiran’s stronghold iron grip over these countries.
Once a critical mass of anti-Hezbollah forces coalesce at a time when Hezbollah the Shia terror group is overwhelmed, a social tipping point could be reached changing the balance of power against Iran for the next decades.
Cutting off the largest tentacle of the Iranian octopus could also have a trickle-down effect on other proxies and restore Israel’s lost deterrence. Following the news of Nassralah’s elimination, Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei was moved to a secure location fearing another Israeli attack.
This momentum must continue so Israel will be able to break the tie in northern Israel and have its own internally displaced persons return to their homes. It would prove to Israelis and the jihadists that Israel will achieve its other war aims just like it achieved the restoration of the north.
Atar Porat This is the way to end the war, maintain an image of victory and change the narrative that Israel’s enemies tell themselves about Israel’s vulnerability.
- Atar Porat is an independent author at the Israel Defense and Security Forum's (IDSF) Research Department.
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