Israel is preparing for a limited ground incursion in Lebanon, a senior US official claimed in a report published on ABC News. The source claimed that Israel is preparing for the ground operation even though it has already killed more than 30 senior Hezbollah officials, most significantly the organization's Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah.
According to the unnamed source, Israel has rejected a proposal for a cease-fire, even a limited one, and is continuing its attacks against targets that are believed to contain long-range missiles and weapons. At the same time, Israel is not listening to the Biden administration despite its repeated calls for a diplomatic solution, according to the report.
Attack over Tyre, Lebanon on Saturday night
The U.S. and Western countries still hope, despite the assassination of Nasrallah, to find a way toward a cease-fire in the north. At this stage it is not clear what will happen to the U.S. initiative and whether it even still exists. The chances of a cease-fire at this stage are not high, but if there is someone able to make decisions in Lebanon who will agree to the terms of withdrawal to the north of the Litani River and a disengagement from Gaza then it is possible.
As for who this responsible party is, the answer is not clear. The preferred option from Israel's point of view is for the Lebanese government to fill the vacuum, but the problem is that within the government there are quite a few ministers who are under Hezbollah's authority. It must be assumed that whoever succeeds Nasrallah will not make such a move without the blessing of the patrons from Tehran, so everything ultimately goes back to Iran.
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President Joe Biden is looking for a diplomatic solution
(Photo: Shannon Stapleton/Reuters)
Regarding the joint cease-fire initiative of the U.S. and France, sources in Israel familiar with the matter say that from the beginning of the discussions, the contacts were with the Lebanese government and not with Hezbollah and the initiative did not have much chance of materializing even before the elimination of Nasrallah. It is difficult to know the chances of such a cease-fire initiative. It is unclear who the Lebanese government can talk to on the ground itself. It may take some time before Hezbollah appoints a successor to Nasrallah, so it is not clear how feasible this move is.