Chaos or martial law: Scenarios for replacing UNRWA in Gaza

Analysis: Israel's law banning UNRWA in the country leaves several options to replace the UN body in the Strip, including international bodies, Gazan clans and the Palestinian Authority

Following Israel’s legislation banning UNRWA’s activity in the country, replacing the 13,000 employees of the UN organization in delivering humanitarian aid to civilians in Gaza will be a challenge. The international community, the Palestinian Authority (PA) and Israeli officials in the country are all considering alternatives as the 90-day period until UNRWA's activities become outlawed nears its end.
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עזה משרדים של אונר"א
עזה משרדים של אונר"א
UNRWA offices in Gaza
(Photo: AFP)
According to Israel’s Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT), over 600 aid trucks are waiting to enter the Gaza Strip. Even now UNRWA is struggling to receive the aid and deliver it where it is needed due to the fighting between the IDF troops and Hamas terrorists, especially in northern Gaza

Who could be an alternative?

UNRWA noted that Israeli authorities have encouraged many aid organizations to assist Gaza since the beginning of the war to take part in aid distribution but only a few have been able to operate.
There’s a significant systemic failure on the ground, officials in UNRWA said. Many organizations distributed aid to their close associates. An example of this is the aid provided by the United Arab Emirates, managed by associates of a senior former Palestinian official Muhammad Dahlan.
“Most of the aid is sold in markets and not distributed properly,” one displaced Gazan told Ynet. “There’s no law; Hamas and Dahlan's men are enjoying all the aid that enters while we, Gazans who are not affiliated with any faction, only receive leftovers.”
The official page of the UAE aid operation in Gaza previously responded to the claims, saying, “We oppose what some of the displaced are doing — selling tents and aid that we distributed to them.”
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לוחמי צה"ל לצד סמל של אונר"א ברצועת עזה ארכיון
לוחמי צה"ל לצד סמל של אונר"א ברצועת עזה ארכיון
IDF troops near UNRWA's GAZA HQ
(Photo: JACK GUEZ / AFP)
The World Central Kitchen organization (WCK), whose seven employees were accidentally killed in an unintentional IDF strike in April, is also operating in the Strip in a limited capacity, running two main kitchens in Gaza and 65 additional community kitchens. Its capacity, however, isn’t enough to feed the thousands of refugees in Gaza.
Another organization considered smaller is the British Human Appeal, which distributes food packages. Most of its employees are Gaza residents. Another charity is the American Anera, which primarily distributes cooked meals to the displaced in Al-Mawasi and Khan Younis.
Most of its employees are also residents of the Strip. The Turkish Islamic Relief Organization IHH is still operating in Gaza. Turkish volunteers and Gaza residents are involved in food distribution and assistance with shelter supplies throughout the Strip.
Hamas criticized these international relief organizations at the beginning of the war, many of which asked their employees to leave the Strip immediately due to the real danger to their lives.
In addition to the continuous aid entering Gaza, a coalition of six countries is regularly providing aid to the Strip via airdrops. Planes from Jordan, Egypt, the U.S., Belgium, the Netherlands and France are dropping aid, usually consisting of foodstuffs and ready-to-eat meals. This method has not proven effective, as a significant number of displaced individuals have been killed by the drops.
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מצעד צבאי בעזה
מצעד צבאי בעזה
Hamas terrorists in Gaza

Martial law

Lawmakers in Jerusalem have previously instructed security officials to prepare for the possibility that IDF forces will need to distribute humanitarian aid to the residents of the Strip due to difficulties in its distribution.
This option imposes a reality of establishing martial law, which would require purchasing basic food products at a cost of NIS 5 billion ($1.3 billion) per year while risking IDF soldiers in the process.
Military officials aren’t enthusiastic about this possibility, but it remains as long as Israel doesn’t present an alternative to UNRWA and Hamas. It’s likely that significant international pressure will be exerted on Israel to avoid establishing martial law in the Gaza Strip.

Israeli agreement with Gazan clans

Israel has already developed a plan for postwar Gaza centered on cooperation with large clans and influential local families who will take part in governing the Strip. Contacts between Israel and the Gazan clans were already initiated at the beginning of the war, but they encountered many difficulties including threats from Hamas and the assassination of clan leaders.

The Palestinian Authority

Egypt, as a mediator supporting Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas's rule, has repeatedly invited the Fatah leadership to reach some framework for control over the Strip following the War.
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Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas during a joint press conference with Emmanuel Macron in Paris on Wednesday
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas during a joint press conference with Emmanuel Macron in Paris on Wednesday
Palestinian Auhority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas
(Photo: Reuters)
Cairo is counting on a national Palestinian agreement between Fatah and Hamas so that the Palestinian Authority can govern the Strip. Egypt hopes the PA’s rule will be able to oversee Gaza’s and aid distribution. Fatah and Hamas have yet to reach an agreement thus far.
The Palestinian Authority wishes to regain control over the Strip in all respects, but it seems that Israel isn’t interested in this possibility, fearing Hamas might regain control over the area. While the PA is nearly collapsing economically, its leaders don’t rule out the possibility of returning to govern the Strip, potentially dismantling Hamas's rule via its security mechanisms currently operating in the West Bank.
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