As the war with Hezbollah intensifies, senior Iranian officials continue to speak out against Israel, praising the Shiite terror organization’s capabilities – while primarily issuing threats. They are still vowing retaliation for the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran nearly two months ago, claiming that Hamas and Hezbollah "will win the war." Iranian officials have disparaged Israel at every opportunity but refrain from direct involvement in the battle unfolding in Lebanon.
Iran is presenting Hezbollah as fully capable of handling the situation independently, signaling that it does not need Iranian intervention. However, this strategy reflects a clear understanding of the costs and benefits of joining the conflict under the current circumstances – both domestically for Iran and internationally.
On Tuesday, Iranian President Masoud Pazeshkian addressed the United Nations, not ruling out the possibility that Tehran might assist Hezbollah, a move that could push the region into all-out war. Meanwhile, Israel has requested that the U.S. prepare to counter any potential Iranian attacks and send strong messages to deter Tehran from intervening. Despite Iran’s support, it seems Hezbollah's leader Hassan Nasrallah will have to shoulder much of the burden.
Even if Iran decides to avenge the killing of Haniyeh as it has repeatedly threatened, any such action would likely be separate from direct Iranian involvement in the broader conflict, which could escalate tensions regionally and put Iran itself at risk.
In recent days, Iran has been trying to elevate Hezbollah’s stature, showcasing how little the group needs its direct support. For example, Saudi TV channel Al-Hadath quoted Iranian sources saying, "We trust Hezbollah's ability to confront Israeli strikes. Iran supports Lebanon’s right to defend its land and secure its interests – and continues to back Hezbollah against Israel’s destructive projects." Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, reiterated this, saying, “These assassinations will not shake Hezbollah; it remains steadfast. To this day, Hezbollah is victorious. The ultimate victory belongs to the resistance front and Hezbollah.”
From Tehran’s perspective, after years of investing in its Lebanese proxy, now is the time for Hezbollah to prove itself. Iran has long stood behind Hezbollah, supporting it significantly over the years, including supplying weapons. However, Iran’s modus operandi is different – it prefers to wield influence through its proxies, intervening directly only in rare cases, such as the direct strike on Israel in April. This is why the Iranian-Shiite axis is so crucial to Tehran: it allows others to "do the work" for them.
Regarding threats of retaliation for Haniyeh's assassination, Iranian officials say it will come "at the right time and in the appropriate way." The Iranian president echoed this sentiment during his recent visit to the United States. Yet, it's important to remember that Iran is trying to rebuild itself on multiple fronts, grappling with economic and social crises.
Iran seeks relief from sanctions to improve its economy and aims to enhance relations with neighboring Arab countries, according to Pazeshkian. While Tehran continues to unveil new missiles and drones, issuing threats along the way, it might not view this moment as the "right time" to get directly involved in the ongoing conflict along Lebanon’s border. As part of its long-term strategy, Iran may have different plans for the future.