Polls in the U.S. elections indicate a tight race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, with the candidates statistically tied in several battleground states that will determine the winner.
Despite this deadlock, it's possible that one of the candidates could secure a decisive victory in a majority of those states, leading to a significant overall win.
Several scenarios are at play:
A narrow victory for Kamala Harris: This outcome could lead to the greatest tension. Trump may declare victory Tuesday night, even before official results confirm it, and he is unlikely to acknowledge a Harris win. Throughout his campaign, Trump has maintained that the only result he considers legitimate is his own victory. If Harris wins by a slim margin, it is anticipated that Trump's camp would file numerous lawsuits, ultimately bringing the matter before the Supreme Court. This is not unprecedented; In 2000, a slim conservative majority on the Supreme Court halted a recount in Florida, awarding the presidency to George W. Bush over Al Gore.
Even if the legal challenges fail, the certification of the results will still need congressional approval on January 6. Prior to the events of January 6, 2021, this date was a symbolic celebration of American democracy, but the Capitol riot changed everything.
If Democrats secure a majority in Congress, the certification process will likely proceed without issues. However, if Republicans retain control of the House, it is possible that House Speaker Mike Johnson could refuse to bring the certification to a vote. Trump has already hinted at a "secret plan" with Johnson.
A landslide victory for Harris: While Trump is unlikely to accept this outcome, the chances of him successfully contesting the results would be significantly lower.
Any victory for Trump: In this case, Harris is expected to concede gracefully, regardless of the margin. As the sitting vice president, she would also sign the results on January 6.
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