Israeli security officials believe Hezbollah may launch a significant attack from Lebanon, including rocket strikes on Tel Aviv, if current negotiations for a hostage release deal with Hamas in Cairo break down. This assessment, though not confirmed, has led Israel to prepare for such a scenario.
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is expected to justify the attack as a response to the failed negotiations, avoiding the appearance of directly sabotaging the talks.
Senior Israeli security sources have also warned that a retaliatory strike from Iran or Hezbollah may not necessarily involve rocket or drone attacks as anticipated but could take the form of targeted assassinations of Israeli figures, including ministers, members of the Knesset and senior military and intelligence officials. In response to these concerns, Israel’s domestic security agency, Shin Bet, has heightened its alert level and issued stricter guidelines to all relevant bodies.
Since a series of alleged Israeli assassinations, including that of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, there has been speculation that targeting a senior Israeli figure would be considered a significant achievement. In light of this, discussions have been held with former security officials, National Security Council members, ministers and military officers, urging increased vigilance.
The matter was discussed during a recent meeting of the Security Cabinet, where National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir noted that his personal security has been intensified.
As the hostage negotiations continue in Cairo, Hezbollah has released a new propaganda video showcasing its underground Imad 4 facility. The video, accompanied by threats from Nasrallah, reveals Hezbollah's extensive tunnel network in Lebanon, including massive underground bases equipped with technology and infrastructure capable of transporting trucks and motorcycles.
The footage also shows rocket launch platforms hidden underground, highlighting the strategic threat posed by Hezbollah's tunneling project across Lebanon.
Meanwhile, Israel has demonstrated its readiness for any scenario, with the IDF releasing footage of an air refueling exercise involving F-35, F-15 and Boeing 707 aircraft. The exercise simulated long-range flights into enemy territory, with multiple refuelings in a short period, underscoring the Air Force's operational capabilities.
The IDF has previously used air refueling during the current war, including in a strike on Yemen's Hodeidah port, located over 1,000 miles from Israel, further than the distance to Tehran.