Many Israelis see their war with Iran and its proxies as a fight for national survival. They might be surprised to learn that many Americans, though facing no missile threats, also believe they are in an existential struggle—one centered not around terrorism, but the presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.
This perspective is key for Israelis to understand about the 2024 U.S. election. Trump supporters are convinced that a Harris victory would spell the end of America, while Harris voters believe a Trump win would mark the collapse of the American project. Ask either side what they’d do if the other wins, and many would say they’d leave the country entirely.
The United States has not been this divided since Abraham Lincoln’s 1861 election on the eve of the Civil War. As in that war, race plays a major role, with an overwhelming majority of Black voters still supporting the Democrats. But other factors have grown even more critical.
The country is split between college-educated whites who favor Harris and non-college-educated whites who support Trump, between women backing the Democrats for abortion rights and men who resonate with Trump’s unapologetic masculinity. Some believe it’s time for the U.S. to elect a Black female president, while others remain wary of the idea.
Political polarization in America is near absolute. Although most polls currently show Trump with a slight lead, it remains within the margin of error. A small shift, especially in seven key states—Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin and North Carolina—could determine the entire election.
Commentators are paying close attention to Black and Latino voters, who, while still leaning Democratic, show signs of at least partial support for Trump. These voters appear less focused on race and more concerned with tackling inflation, boosting law enforcement, preserving religious values and protecting jobs from illegal immigration from Mexico and Central America—all policies promoted by Republicans.
The political deadlock in the U.S. election has given the Jewish vote renewed significance, perhaps more than at any other time in history. Although Jews make up less than 2% of the population, they vote at roughly four times the rate of non-Jews and contribute a large share of political donations to both parties. They are also concentrated in key states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, where their vote could tip the balance of the national election.
The question is: will the Jewish vote remain predominantly Democratic? Will Kamala Harris receive the 78% of Jewish votes Barack Obama did in 2008, or the 80% Hillary Clinton received in 2016?
The answer is almost certainly no. Although most American Jews still align with the liberal values championed by the Democratic Party and are wary of extreme conservatives, evangelicals and white supremacists backing Republicans, a growing number are likely to vote for Trump.
This shift is rooted in numerous factors, not least of which is the Democrats’ focus on race- and gender-based policies, which some feel threatens the merit-based system that American Jews have traditionally benefited from.
According to an old joke, American Jews earned like wealthy white Episcopalian Protestants but voted like poor Puerto Ricans. Historically, American Jews were among the few ethnic groups that voted against their socio-economic interests. But that is changing. Like others in the middle and upper classes, they are looking to protect their hard-earned gains and increasingly see Republicans as better suited to do so.
Michael OrenPhoto: Alex KolomoiskyAnd what about Israel? While support for Israel is important to most American Jews, it’s not always their first or even second priority. For those prioritizing it, more are now favoring Trump. They point to his record on recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, acknowledging Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal and signing the Abraham Accords.
They recall the Democratic administration’s frequent criticism of Israel’s wartime actions and the threat to suspend arms supplies. When reminded that Trump threatened to blame Jews if he lost the election, his Jewish supporters respond, “Forget what he says—remember what he did.”
The battle for America has entered its final stretch. Will the U.S., as many Trump voters fear, become a socialist state led by radical leftists, burning the flag and allowing cities to be overrun with undocumented immigrants? Or, as many Harris voters warn, will it turn into a fascist state where democratic and human rights can no longer be protected? Perhaps even more than missiles from Iran or its proxies, the 2024 election appears to pose an existential threat to Americans themselves.
- Michael Oren is a former Israeli ambassador to the United States.
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