Many months have passed and rivers of blood have been shed since Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu embraced U.S. President Joe Biden tightly when he arrived in Israel in early October following Hamas’ attack. This was the first time an incumbent American president visited Israel during a war.
We’ve forgotten those moments, when Netanyahu was so vulnerable, stunned by the magnitude of the failure he’s responsible for, that he hugged Biden like a man clinging for life. The American president, who had sent two aircraft carriers to Israel, deterred Hezbollah and, during that visit, issued two warnings during his visit: that Israel mustn’t cause a humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza or its ability to manage the war and defeat Hamas would be severely impacted; and that clear and achievable goals for the war were needed including a plan for post-war Gaza. Eight months have passed. Readers can judge how accurate the U.S. administration’s warnings were.
On Friday, the White House once again tackled the Middle East crisis. It executed a tight, calculated and sophisticated plan. Biden’s speech aimed to announce a "comprehensive Israeli hostage deal," as he put it. This in itself is unusual. American presidents typically announce their own country's policy. In this case, it was a framework proposed by Israel and passed to the Qataris and Egyptians to be forwarded to Hamas.
This new approach was decided in the War Cabinet, following the demands of security officials and Major General (res.) Nitzan Alon, who is one of the leading negotiators on behalf of Israel. Why did Israel not make its proposal’s terms available to the public? Why did the American president do it instead?
Everyone knows the answer, from Jerusalem to Washington: Because the current government is held hostage by Bezalel Smotrich, Itamar Ben-Gvir, and a group of Likud lawmakers who have informed Netanyahu, in various ways, that they’ll dismantle his government if a proposal is accepted which will lead to a complete cease-fire in Gaza.
President Biden clarified that the proposal was Israeli in origin and embraced it firmly, in a tight bear hug. If one could rely on Netanyahu, the American leader wouldn’t have needed to devote so much of his speech to convincing the Israeli public and his government that the proposal is a good one. After all, our government proposed it. But the White House, one can assume, fears Netanyahu might sabotage the proposal. It understands Israel’s internal dynamics well.
Biden also had personal reasons for his speech. The Israeli public constantly complains that the American president doesn’t support Jerusalem enough, especially those from the right. But in the U.S., anti-Israel demonstrations are peppered with protesters chanting "Genocide Joe." By clarifying that Israel made an excellent, moderate proposal, the American president puts the pressure on Hamas.
He also tells the left-leaning American audience, saturated with criticism of his administration, that he delivered what he promised. Israel is ready to compromise, significantly so. If it doesn’t work this time, it won’t be Israel’s fault nor that of his administration. Hamas is to blame. The White House would settle for much less than normalization with Saudi Arabia. The cease-fire in Gaza and the hostages, or at least some of them, coming home would be enough.
Senior officials in Israel have confirmed that this is indeed the general outline of the Israeli proposal, but one element was "extended" and "stressed" by the White House far beyond what Israel intended, referring to the following passage in Biden's speech:
"The proposal says if the negotiations take longer than six weeks for phase one, the cease-fire will still continue as long as negotiations continue." Such a framework seemingly allows Hamas to secure an indefinite cease-fire, effectively ending the war, without returning any hostages after the first phase. All it needs to do is "negotiate." Sources in Israel say that the country never agreed to this.
But the bigger picture is quite simple. Israel is in a stalemate in the Gaza Strip. It will be difficult for it to advance to post-war Gaza after Rafah, and without any cease-fire. Israel may soon need its forces and attention on the northern border. If Israel’s ace in the hole is ending the war in the south, it might have to forfeit this advantage anyway, even without a deal.
Israel tried to dispel this bleak turn of events with its latest proposal sent to Hamas. Israel, meaning the War Cabinet, where Netanyahu is in the minority. Biden decided that if Netanyahu won’t take ownership of his own government's proposal, he’ll do it for him. He tried to corner Netanyahu into implementing a proposal he probably never intended to carry through.
"We can't lose this moment," said Biden. "Indefinite war in pursuit of an unidentified notion of “total victory” will not bring Israel in – will not bring down – bog down – will only bog down Israel in Gaza, draining the economic, military, and human – and human resources, and furthering Israel’s isolation in the world.”
4 View gallery
Benjamin Netanyahu gets a bear hug from Joe Biden at start of his Israel visit after October 7
(Photo: AP)
It doesn't sound as if the American president believes Israel made the proposal wholeheartedly and with intentions to implement it. Indeed, as night fell on Saturday, Smotrich and Ben-Gvir attacked along with other Likud lawmakers.
Nadav EyalPhoto: Avigail UziThey said it clearly this time: They will topple the government if the deal goes through. A bizarre event, if you think about it: Israel made a proposal for a deal, approved by its War Cabinet. The U.S. brought it to light, and the surprised coalition partners are now threatening to drag the country into another elections and thwart the proposal. This isn’t how a country is run.