Despite renewed negotiations and mediator efforts, Israeli officials expressed significant pessimism Saturday about the chances of securing a hostage deal with Hamas.
“Hamas insists on a complete end to the war and is not open to incremental deals. This isn’t moving in a promising direction,” a senior Israeli official said, adding that mediators have not returned with an official response, attempting to prevent a full collapse of the talks.
“Perhaps after the U.S. elections, there could be a fresh approach. If [Kamala] Harris wins, momentum could continue toward a larger deal—meaning an end to the war.”
“The mediators are still in talks with Hamas and haven’t given up, but the chances look very slim," explained one source familiar with the ongoing discussions. "As it stands, Hamas is unwilling to consider any framework that does not ultimately include a full withdrawal from Gaza and an end to the war from July 2. This isn’t final, but even if Hamas were to agree to an initial small-scale deal, they would still require the later stages to include a full cease-fire and retreat from Gaza.
"After over a year of intense fighting, including significant gains and the killing of [Hamas leader Yahya] Sinwar, it’s time to consolidate, end the war and achieve core objectives, one of which is the hostages’ return. Some argue that it would be wise to withdraw even without securing the hostages.
“Sinwar has consistently told Hamas leadership—and his brother—that the hostages are leverage and will only be released if there is a full military withdrawal. No hostage is returned until forces withdraw from Gaza. The prime minister’s team might frame it as Hamas waiting for us to lose and withdraw, but most security and military officials believe that after a year of combat and substantial achievements, now is precisely the time to end the war, plan for what follows and secure the hostages.”
Israeli assessments suggest that after the U.S. election, regardless of who wins, there will be intense pressure on Israel to conclude the war. Officials anticipate that the Biden administration, feeling less constrained by the political campaign of Vice President Kamala Harris, will push for a broad deal that includes ending the war and securing the return of the hostages.
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US Secretary of State Antony Blinken meets with Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed Al Thani
(Photo: Nathan Howard/Pool Photo via AP)
Meanwhile, Cairo is persisting in its diplomatic efforts with both Palestinian and Israeli representatives to establish calm in Gaza and enable further humanitarian aid access, Egypt’s Al Qahera News reported Saturday evening, citing a senior Egyptian official.
The source noted ongoing Cairo meetings between Fatah and Hamas leaders, with Hamas remaining firm on negotiating hostage release and cease-fire terms jointly to avoid further hostilities from Israel. Egypt is working to bring negotiations back on track, with both Fatah and Hamas reportedly open to forming a joint committee for Gaza’s governance.
Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke on Saturday with Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer. The two discussed steps to reduce regional escalation, with Blinken underscoring the importance of ending the war in Gaza, securing the return of all hostages and establishing a post-war pathway that ensures governance, security and reconstruction. Blinken addressed the dire humanitarian conditions in Gaza, reviewed actions taken to improve the situation and urged further steps to increase aid to civilians.
The two also discussed ongoing diplomatic efforts to reach a resolution in Lebanon, which would allow both Lebanese and Israeli civilians to return safely to their homes. Additionally, Blinken reaffirmed the United States’ commitment to Israel’s security against threats posed by Iran and its proxy groups.
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