In one of the most dangerous incidents for U.S. forces in the Middle East since the onset of the war in Gaza, a U.S. Navy F/A-18 fighter jet was accidentally shot down over the Red Sea by an American warship over the weekend. The incident coincided with U.S. airstrikes targeting Houthi positions in the Yemeni capital, Sanaa.
Both pilots safely ejected and were rescued, while the Houthi rebels quickly claimed responsibility for the downing. However, the Pentagon has not clarified whether the friendly fire was directly linked to the ongoing combat against the Iranian-backed group.
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The Houthis in a show of support for Gaza in Sanaa over the weekend
(Photo: REUTERS/Khaled Abdullah)
The episode underscores the broader challenge posed by Iranian proxies, not only to Israel but also to the United States and the international community.
Since the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel, the Houthis have launched what they describe as a campaign of "support for Gaza." This campaign has included barrages of missiles and swarms of drones targeting Israel—some of which caused casualties—and strikes on civilian vessels in the Red Sea, effectively crippling one of the world’s critical trade routes. One civilian ship was even seized.
The Houthi attacks place the Biden administration in a difficult position, as they coincide with U.S. efforts to mediate an end to Yemen’s civil war and the Saudi-Houthi conflict. That war, which has killed tens of thousands of civilians in Saudi airstrikes, failed to defeat the Iranian-aligned militia.
President Joe Biden removed the Houthis from the U.S. list of terrorist organizations upon entering office, and a UN-brokered cease-fire between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia was reached in 2022. Over the past year, the U.S. has avoided direct, large-scale attacks on Houthi targets, seeking to preserve diplomatic efforts and prevent broader escalation in the region.
Still, Washington formed an international coalition to conduct limited strikes aimed at deterring Houthi activity in the Red Sea. Israel, meanwhile, has expressed frustration over what it perceives as insufficient U.S. actions against the militia.
Israel largely refrained from responding to Houthi attacks for months but launched its first strike in July, followed by additional attacks in September and last week. These strikes targeted strategic sites such as energy facilities and ports. Yet the Houthis vowed to continue their missile and drone campaigns.
Earlier Monday, the IDF intercepted a drone launched from Yemen—following two failed interceptions of ballistic missiles last week. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu urged Israelis to “remain patient and steadfast” and hinted at a coordinated international effort against the Houthis, possibly involving expanded U.S. operations.
“We will act with strength, determination and ingenuity,” Netanyahu said Monday. “Even if it takes time, the result will be the same as with other terrorist arms.” He promised that Israel’s recent strike in Yemen “will not be the last.”
As tensions remain high, the possibility of intensified U.S. and allied action could grow, particularly with President-elect Donald Trump set to re-enter the White House next month.
However, the U.S.-led coalition’s ability to deter the Houthis has come into question as they had shown resilience against years of relentless Saudi airstrikes, often disregarding the severe suffering of Yemeni civilians. Two-thirds of Yemen’s population lives under Houthi control.
A report Monday in The Wall Street Journal highlighted growing concerns in Washington and among international allies over the Houthis’ acquisition of advanced missile and drone technologies from Iran. Western sources have also alleged Russian involvement, pointing to intelligence about Western ships in the Red Sea supplying the Houthis.
According to a U.S. defense official cited in the report, the coalition has destroyed 450 Houthi-launched drones. Despite these efforts, the Houthis' technological capabilities continue to pose significant challenges, exemplified by last week’s failure of Israel’s missile defense systems to intercept two ballistic missiles. One struck a school in Ramat Efal, while the other hit a playground in Tel Aviv.
The missile launched from Yemen to Israel last week, which struck Ramat Efal
As noted by Ynet military analyst Rob Ben-Yishai, experts who spoke to The Journal believe that the Houthis on Saturday fired a derivative of an Iranian-made ballistic missile with a maneuverable re-entry vehicle, designed to evade defense systems.
“The scale, nature and extent of transfers of diverse military materiel and technology provided to the Houthis from external sources, including financial support and training of its combatants, is unprecedented,” a United Nations report said in November.
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William LaPlante, the U.S. undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment, warned last month that the Houthis “are getting scary” and that he was "just shocked” at technologies they now have access to.
The rapid evolution of the Houthis’ capabilities has alarmed analysts. “In 2004, they were a besieged group hiding in the mountains,” said Mohammed Albasha, a U.S.-based Middle East security analyst for Basha Report. “Now, they’re chasing U.S. carriers with drones and missiles and striking 2,000 kilometers away in central Israel.”
This transformation, analysts say, could intensify if Iran increases its support for the Houthis as it faces setbacks in Lebanon and Syria. Even if the U.S. escalates its operations, experts question whether the Houthis can be deterred.
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The Houthis in a show of support for Gaza in Sanaa over the weekend
(Photo: Mohammed HUWAIS / AFP)
Osamah Al Rawhani, a director for the Yemen-based Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies, an independent think tank, told The Wall Street Journal: “The Houthis don’t care what they lose as Yemenis. They want to win as a militia and take on global powers.”
Dr. Yoel Guzansky, a senior researcher at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), echoed the sentiment. The Houthis “don’t have a lot to lose” and “They cannot be deterred.”
Trump has not yet outlined specific plans to address the Houthi threat. However, during his election campaign, Trump subtly criticized the Biden administration’s military actions in the region, writing in August in a post on X that " Bombs are dropping all over the place" in the Middle East. Given his hardline stance on Iran, analysts anticipate a tougher U.S. policy on the Houthis under his leadership.
Mike Waltz, Trump’s incoming national security advisor, signaled this shift during a podcast interview with conservative commentator Ben Shapiro, promising to re-designate the Houthis as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO). “They remain an outstanding issue,” Waltz said. “I guarantee what you’re going to see very soon is a redesignation of them for what they are — a terrorist organization.”
President Biden removed the Houthis from the FTO list shortly after taking office, citing humanitarian concerns and the need to facilitate aid deliveries to Yemen’s civilians amid a dire humanitarian crisis. The FTO designation, first implemented by Trump in the waning days of his first term, carried severe sanctions, including penalties for any entities providing material support to the group.
In January 2023, following renewed Houthi attacks, Biden placed them on the less severe Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT) list, which imposes sanctions but lacks the sweeping restrictions of FTO classification. Critics have argued that the SDGT label does not do enough to curb the group’s aggression.
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Will there be a change when Trump returns? With Biden in the White House
(Photo: REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque)
Ben-Yishai predicted that Trump would lift the operational constraints Biden placed on U.S. forces in Yemen, potentially paving the way for a coordinated U.S.-Israel campaign to neutralize the Houthi threat.
Such a strategy could involve targeting the Houthis’ leadership and degrading their ballistic missiles, drones, launch systems and production facilities—actions that Ben-Yishai said would mirror successful Israeli operations against Hezbollah’s strategic assets in Lebanon and the Assad regime’s capabilities in Syria.
Israel would likely require significant cooperation from U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) and the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet, which operates in the region with aircraft carriers, missile destroyers and other assets. The geographic distance and intelligence challenges make unilateral Israeli action improbable.
Ben-Yishai argued that a coordinated effort could prevent the Houthis from further destabilizing global order and the economy. He noted that while the Houthis are undeterred by strikes on their state infrastructure, leadership decapitation and precision attacks on their military capabilities could shift the balance.