Amid the intense rocket fire on Israel and strong but still unconfirmed rumors that Hezbollah's deputy leader, Sheikh Naim Qassem, has fled to Iran, Lebanon’s six million citizens await the arrival of U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein.
Hochstein plans to visit Beirut on Monday, representing U.S. President Joe Biden and backed by France, the UK, and Germany, with the goal of finally establishing a new order in Lebanon. Part of this mission involves positioning Lebanese Army Chief General Joseph Aoun to fill the vacant position of president and mobilize the army to replace Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.
The West's new plan
While it’s still unclear when and how these dramatic moves will unfold, Lebanese Forces party leader Samir Geagea is now openly discussing them. Since Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was reportedly killed three weeks ago, Geagea, long known for his staunch positions, has become increasingly vocal on Lebanon’s TV channels, sharing his vision for the near future.
His influence is rising rapidly. In some circles in Lebanon, being associated with military cooperation with the IDF is no longer considered as scandalous as cooperating with Nasrallah—whom his opponents in Beirut derisively call "the pig."
Geagea, known as "a man of principles" for his unwavering stances, is becoming a central figure in Lebanon’s political landscape. He understands the U.S. plan is to install General Joseph Aoun as president, working in cooperation with the long-standing Shiite Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri. The Americans are determined, and they’ve secured the support of France, the UK, Germany, Saudi Arabia, and even Israel—albeit behind the scenes.
Lebanon has been without a president since October 2022, when 91-year-old Michel Aoun vacated the office. Despite 12 votes in parliament, Hezbollah has repeatedly blocked any consensus, insisting on its own candidates. According to Lebanon’s political system, the president must be a Maronite Christian. Geagea, now 71, is a Maronite but understands he won’t be elected due to his reputation, which dates back to his role in the Lebanese Civil War (1975–1990), where he was held responsible for the deaths of Lebanese and Syrian soldiers.
Geagea’s return to prominence
"We want Israel to push deeper into Lebanon and get rid of Hezbollah. We have no problem with Israel," a group of Lebanese intellectuals I’m in touch with boldly declare. Geagea, who knows his people well from his experience in 1982, shares the sentiment of senior Lebanese officials who say, "Israel doesn’t have enough forces because it’s facing too many fronts." He sends a clear message to the people of Lebanon: "Let the American (Hochstein) do his job, and hopefully, he’ll succeed this time."
Geagea’s wife, Setrida Geagea, has also joined the fight for Lebanon’s independence from Iran and Hezbollah. She’s been making media appearances alongside her husband, stating that Hezbollah’s war "primarily harms the Lebanese people."
In an interview with the Associated Press, Geagea proposed his "retreat plan": Hezbollah would withdraw from southern Lebanon, the Lebanese army would take control of towns and villages without occupying civilians’ homes, and the operation would be led by General Joseph Aoun from the presidential palace in Baabda.
Meanwhile, all Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps officers entrenched in Hezbollah’s Lebanese headquarters would be expelled. Geagea, who isn’t afraid to risk his life, speaks bluntly against Iran: "Lebanon belongs to us, and the non-Arab Muslims (the Iranians) should leave as soon as possible."
Geagea is well aware of Lebanon’s dire economic situation, with over 1.5 million Lebanese refugees scattered across the country while 785,000 Syrian refugees refuse to return to Syria. "This is a war that’s been forced on all of us," he says, "a war Hezbollah is initiating, and it’s being forced on the average citizen. Without a president, the government has no power and nothing to say."
"Because of Hezbollah, Lebanon has become a state within a state"
But there is hope, Geagea stated this week, as he looks ahead to possible solutions to Lebanon’s bleak state. "There will be no choice but to seek outside help in the short term, to establish an independent state and return to being the Switzerland or Paris of the Middle East."
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