On Friday, The International Court of Justice (ICJ) at The Hague has announced that, in accordance with South Africa's motion to stop the IDF’s operation in Rafah, Israel is thereby ordered by the court to suspend the military operation being conducted in the Gaza Strip's most southern city, also believed to be the hiding place of Hamas' upper echelon. Watch it live.
The petition is part of a broader lawsuit accusing Israel of carrying out genocide in Gaza. Estimates in Israel say the likelihood of South Africa's original demand for stopping the war in Gaza being accepted is moderate, but the chances of partial acceptance of the demand, focusing on a cease-fire in the Rafah area and issuing additional orders to increase humanitarian aid to the Strip, are higher.
The international panel of judges stated that Israel has not satisfactorily demonstrated that their evacuation efforts and associated measures, which they claim are aimed at improving civilian safety in the Gaza Strip, particularly for those recently displaced from Rafah, are sufficient to mitigate the substantial risks faced by the Palestinian population due to the military actions in Rafah.
In summary, Israeli officials note that while the decision is more limited than South Africa would have ideally wanted, it poses greater challenges because it significantly confronts the United States, who had opposed the Rafah operation and warned of a potential humanitarian catastrophe—an assertion the court has essentially endorsed, citing senior American officials. The issue becomes problematic because if Israel does not comply with the order, it will be referred to the UN Security Council, where it is uncertain whether the United States will exercise its veto power.
Despite the order being issued by the ICJ, it is indeed widely believed by experts that Israel will not comply. What's likely to follow is a scenario where the Palestinians and their supporters will turn to the UN Security Council to try to pass a resolution to impose a cease-fire on Israel for all of Gaza or in Rafah specifically.
Jerusalem is preparing for more challenging scenarios, especially after the recent political debacle at the International Criminal Court (ICC) and the request by its chief prosecutor to pursue arrest warrants against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Gallant.
First published: 16:12, 05.24.24