Former Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar’s elimination in Gaza on Thursday is sending the Gazan terror group into freefall with speculation about his possible successor.
The list of potential Hamas successors includes various senior figures within the terror organization — most of whom reside in Qatar or other countries. While one of the leading candidates is originally from Gaza, the rest are senior members of the terror group’s politburo, indicating Sinwar’s death could shift the power back to leaders overseas.
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Khaled Mashal, Khalil al-Hayya, Sinwar's body in Gaza
(Photo: AP Photo/Osama Faisal, File)
This marks a change after years where the balance of power leaned toward senior Gazan figures. "Decisions will be returned to Hamas’ branch abroad, which may help push negotiations for a cease-fire forward," Hamas sources told Saudi newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat.
"Sinwar was a true leader — he would promote and remove figures in the movement at his discretion,” A source close to the terror organization's leadership claimed. “He took control of decision-making in an extreme manner, which was evident from the moment he became head. Communication with him was difficult, complicated and often disrupted."
Sinwar's potential successor will need to be accepted by the terror group’s leadership abroad and likely have some ties to Iran as well. These are the terror group’s possible candidates:
Khaled Mashal
One potential contender is Khaled Mashal, considered one of the most powerful figures in Hamas's politburo, although his views have differed from Sinwar's — especially regarding ties with Iran.
Mashal currently serves as the leader of Hamas’ foreign branch, and headed its politburo for 21 years, from 1996 to 2017, before deciding to step down. In 2021, he was re-elected as the leader of Hamas’ foreign branch in an attempt to return to the Palestinian political arena. In 1997, he survived an assassination attempt in a botched Mossad operation in Jordan.
Khalil al-Hayya
Khalil al-Hayya, Sinwar's deputy, left the Gaza Strip before October 7, 2023, and has since been one of the senior figures leading negotiations for a cease-fire and a hostage deal on behalf of the terror organization.
Al-Hayya also maintains strong ties with Iran, where he traveled following the terror group’s former politburo member Ismail Haniyeh's assassination to attend his funeral. The New York Times reported that al-Hayya was part of the "closed military council" Sinwar convened over two years to plan the October 7 attack and acted as a special envoy for classified discussions on the matter with Iran and Hezbollah.
According to a Gazan source, al-Hayya is seen as having a strong chance of being appointed head of Hamas’ politburo. "Sinwar groomed him for the role and brought him closer to Iranian elements that support Hamas," the source said. "Al-Hayya's power within the group’s politburo is evident today. He’s considered one of the few Sinwar trusted."
Mousa Abu Marzook
Mousa Abu Marzook, who served as Haniyeh's deputy when he was head of Hamas' politburo and is regarded as one of the senior figures in the organization's political wing, lived in the U.S. for many years and has since moved between various Arab capitals.
Over the past year, he held a series of interviews worldwide, including one where he said that the tunnels built in Gaza were intended to protect Hamas, not the residents of the Strip. "It's the UN's responsibility to protect them," he said.
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China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Mousa Abu Marzouk in China
(Photo: Pedro Pardo / AFP)
Abu Marzouk also played an important role in negotiations between Israel and Hamas. Unlike Mashal, he isn’t not considered a charismatic or influential "threat" and was often given a platform and spotlight by Haniyeh on various occasions.
A 'strawman' candidate?
In August, following Haniyeh’s assassination, Saudi networks reported that the person expected to take over as head of Hamas's political bureau was Muhammad Ismail Darwish, who serves as the head of Hamas' Shura Council.
It was later revealed that Darwish wasn’t chosen, with Sinwar taking the role instead. Nevertheless, Hamas released a photo of its Shura Council head meeting with Islamic Jihad leader Ziyad al-Nakhalah last August, about two weeks after Sinwar's appointment as head.
One figure less likely to take over Hamas' politburo is his brother, Mohammed Sinwar, who has already likely taken over as head of the terror group's armed wing.
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