The International Court of Justice (ICJ) at The Hague is set to announce its ruling on Friday on South Africa's appeal for a motion to stop the IDF’s operation in Rafah. Despite concerns in Jerusalem ahead of the ruling, a government official told the Reuters news agency, "No power on Earth will stop Israel from protecting its citizens and going after Hamas in Gaza.”
The appeal is part of a broader lawsuit accusing Israel of carrying out genocide in Gaza. Estimates in Israel say the likelihood of South Africa's original demand for stopping the war in Gaza being accepted is moderate, but the chances of partial acceptance of the demand, focusing on a cease-fire in the Rafah area and issuing additional orders to increase humanitarian aid to the Strip, are higher.
Experts believe that if orders are issued calling for a pause to the fighting, Israel will not comply. It’s likely that, in such a scenario, the Palestinians and their supporters will turn to the UN Security Council to try to pass a resolution to impose a cease-fire on Israel for all of Gaza or in Rafah specifically.
Jerusalem is preparing for more challenging scenarios, especially after the recent political debacle at the International Criminal Court (ICC) and the request by its chief prosecutor to pursue arrest warrants against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Gallant.
Some in Israel prefer that the court issue an order to stop all fighting in Gaza rather than in Rafah alone. The reason is that Israel fears the United States may not veto the motion if the order focuses only on Rafah.
Another concern is the potential spillover of hostilities from the ICC to the ICJ. Formally, the issue of arrest warrants shouldn’t have a direct impact on the matter, and the institutions are standalone - the ICJ is a UN court, and the ICC is an independent institution.
However, both are based in The Hague, both are considered the world's foremost courts in international law, and Israel fears a negative atmosphere toward it and an unfavorable discourse among legal professionals in the city leading to an undesirable outcome for Jerusalem.