Less than a week before President-elect Donald Trump's return to the White House, and amid reports from both sides that efforts are underway to organize a summit between Trump and Vladimir Putin in the coming weeks, uncertainty looms over Ukraine due to the complex and challenging situation on the frontlines of the war.
Currently, Russian forces control more than 18% of Ukraine’s sovereign territory, including Crimea. Russian military units continue to make consistent advances in eastern Ukraine, particularly in the western Donetsk region, capitalizing on the Ukrainian army’s severe shortage of personnel, particularly experienced fighters, and its struggle to defend a long front line.
For some time now, Ukrainians have grown increasingly doubtful of their ability to reclaim territories occupied by Russia. Kyiv also fears that Russian forces may expand their occupied areas, especially as the expected Trump administration seeks to bring an end to the war or freeze the conflict.
Recently, Russian forces have advanced south of Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region, an important logistical and transportation hub, and appear to be attempting to encircle it. Russian advances have also been reported in the Luhansk region.
Despite pressure from the Washington administration, Ukraine continues to refuse to draft young men aged 18 to 25 into the military. Currently, men between the ages of 25 and 60 are being recruited, with many of the soldiers over the age of 43, highlighting the severe shortage of experienced fighters.
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While awaiting Trump’s return to the White House and the possibility of negotiations to end the war, Ukrainians are working to increase international support. On Friday, a regular meeting of NATO defense ministers took place at the Ramstein base in Germany, which is used by both NATO and the U.S. Air Force. Ukraine is not a member of the military alliance, but President Volodymyr Zelensky attended the gathering. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov also attended, stating that Ukraine's priorities for 2025 will be stabilizing the frontlines and strengthening defense capabilities.
In addition to the Biden administration’s announcement of an additional $500 million in military aid to Ukraine, other nations in the forum pledged to continue providing military support, including air defense systems and drones. U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin emphasized that the coalition supporting Kyiv throughout the war "must continue to stand by Ukraine and strengthen its position for the eventual possibility of negotiations that will, at some point, bring an end to Putin’s monstrous war."
It is still unclear whether the forum will continue to meet after Trump is inaugurated on January 20, and a new administration takes office in the U.S.
Retired General Keith Kellogg, Trump’s special envoy on Ukraine, said in a television interview last week that: “People need to understand, Trump is not trying to give anything to Putin or the Russians. He is trying to preserve Ukraine’s sovereignty and ensure it, and he will do so fairly and honestly.”
Kellogg also stated that Trump intends to try to end the war within 100 days of entering the White House. This declaration sounds very optimistic, perhaps overly so, given the vast differences between the two sides. At this point, it’s unclear whether Putin, who currently has the momentum on his side, has any real interest in ending the fighting, especially if he believes that Trump will significantly reduce U.S. aid to Ukraine.