More than nine months after the Iron Swords war began, many Palestinians are convinced that the “day after” in the Gaza Strip will be a return to the pre-October 7 era, in which the Iran-backed terrorist group still has control of the coastal enclave. For them, the “day after” means going back to the day before the Hamas-led attack on Israel.
Today, Palestinians fall into two groups: those who hate Hamas but think that under the current circumstances it is impossible to remove it from power, and those who want Hamas to stay in power because they embrace it and its extremist ideology.
Opponents of Hamas contend that, until the terrorist organization is totally destroyed, neither the Palestinian Authority nor any Arab state will be prepared to rule the Gaza Strip. And they do not see that objective being met more than nine months after the start of the war.
Recently, Abu Obaida, the spokesperson for Hamas’s military wing, claimed that his group has been successful in bringing thousands of new “fighters” into its ranks to replace those killed since the start of the war.
Even if Abu Obaida’s claim might be exaggerated, its purpose is to demonstrate to Palestinians, Arabs and the international community that Hamas is not going anywhere. This is a form of warning to any party that would consider playing a role in the Gaza Strip on the “day after.”
Over the past few months, Hamas has killed clan leaders and kidnapped and tortured political opponents to thwart the establishment of a new government.
In response to Hamas’ campaign of terror and intimidation, several clans in the Gaza Strip have released statements declaring their support for the terrorist group and denouncing any “conspiracy” to foster the rise of new leaders there.
That, however, does not mean that Hamas will prevent the Palestinian Authority or any other party from providing financial and humanitarian assistance to the residents of the Gaza Strip.
Furthermore, it does not imply that Hamas will impede any initiative to reconstruct the Gaza Strip. As long as these actions do not compromise Hamas’ authority over the Gaza Strip, the organization will permit them to take place.
Not hiding their dissatisfaction in private, some Palestinian Authority officials are disappointed that Hamas still controls the Gaza Strip more than nine months after the war began. “We thought it would only take a few weeks to remove Hamas from power,” stated one official. “However, several months later, Hamas remains in place and continues to have complete authority over civilian affairs. In addition, Hamas still has many fighters.”
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Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas
(AP / AFP)
Another Palestinian Authority official said that he anticipated a fall in Hamas’s popularity among Palestinians as the war drags on and more Palestinians lose their lives.
“We see that the opposite has happened,” the official stated. “According to polls conducted after October 7, Hamas’ popularity is rising. This is due to the widespread belief that Hamas is winning the battle. If you watched [the Qatari-owned network] Al-Jazeera, you would also come to the same conclusion – that Israel has been defeated.”
The most recent public opinion poll, conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, showed that many Palestinians support Hamas and believe that the terrorist group will continue to rule the Gaza Strip on the “day after.”
When asked who the public would prefer to control the Gaza Strip after the war, 61% (71% in the West Bank and 46% in the Gaza Strip) answered Hamas. Only 16% chose a new Palestinian Authority with an elected president, parliament and government, while another 6% chose the current Palestinian Authority but without its president, Mahmoud Abbas.
When asked to speculate about the party that will control the Gaza Strip in the “day after,” a majority of respondents (56%) answered that it would be Hamas.
It is also interesting to see that an overwhelming majority of Palestinians (75%) oppose the deployment of an Arab security force in the Gaza Strip. In this regard, these Palestinians have actually endorsed Hamas’ stance, which opposes the deployment of non-Palestinian security forces in the Gaza Strip.
Hamas officials have gone so far as warning that such a force would be dealt with as an “occupying” party – an implication that terrorists would target the troops. Egypt, Jordan and other Arab countries do not seem to be enthusiastic about dispatching their troops to the Gaza Strip.
Similarly, the Palestinian Authority does not appear to be excited about returning to the Gaza Strip. That’s because it does not want to be accused of entering the Gaza Strip “atop an Israeli tank.” The Palestinian Authority, in addition, is also afraid that it will be left alone to bear the burden of rebuilding the Gaza Strip because most Arab countries have consistently failed to fulfill their promises to help the Palestinians.
According to the latest poll, a vast majority of Palestinians (68%) said the terrorist group’s decision to launch war on Israel was “correct.” Previous polls conducted by the same center have shown that more than 70% of Palestinians support the Hamas-led October 7 attack.
There is virtually little debate among the Palestinians about the “day after” in the Gaza Strip, even though some in Israel and the United States appear to be obsessed with the idea. This is due to the widespread Palestinian belief that Hamas will somehow maintain its hold on power in the Gaza Strip after the war.
Khaled Abu ToamehThe Palestinians are probably the only ones who could force Hamas to relinquish control of the Gaza Strip. It remains to be seen whether or not the Palestinians who lost their homes and loved ones will rise against Hamas after the war or if a large number of them will take to the streets to express their support for the terrorist groups, either out of fear or genuine sympathy.
Khaled Abu Toameh is an award-winning Israeli Arab journalist, lecturer and documentary filmmaker specializing in Palestinian affairs. A Senior Distinguished Fellow at the Gatestone Institute and a Fellow of the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, he has also worked as a senior producer for NBC in the Middle East and has reported on events in the West Bank and Gaza for several media outlets.