Speaking to Ynetnews, former Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. Michael Oren offered his analysis of the increasingly tight race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris in Tuesday's U.S. presidential election, predicting it will go down to the wire.
While Trump appears to lead in most battleground states, Oren noted that his margin remains within the margin of error, leaving the contest too close to call and both candidates neck and neck as election day approaches.
US election 2024: Interview with former Israeli Ambassador to the United States Michael Oren
(Video: Mickey Schmidt)
According to Oren, voter turnout will play a key role in determining the identity of the next president, with Trump relying on young male voters and Harris banking on female turnout. "If the women come out, Harris has an advantage. If the men come out, Trump has an advantage," Oren said.
When asked about Trump's appearance at a Michigan rally where Arab supporters expressed concerns about the Palestinian issue, Oren downplayed the notion that this represented a policy shift.
"I think it's obvious he's going to go toward these voters," Oren said. "Keep in mind Arab and Muslim Americans are not just Arabs and Muslims, they are people who belong to the middle class. They have small businesses, and they like Trump. As for his economic policies, they also like Trump for his security policies."
He explained that while the Democratic Party has called for defunding the police, Trump has positioned himself as a strong supporter of law enforcement, a stance that resonates with many in these communities.
Oren also pointed to a religious dimension. "Many of these people are religiously observant. They see a Democratic Party which is increasingly atheist [and] in favor of abortion. For example, do you think that people who are religious Muslims are in favor of abortion? They may not be. This is why Trump is gaining, not only among Arab Americans and Muslim Americans. You go by a small margin, but certainly among African Americans, Black Americans and Latino Americans."
Addressing the Jewish vote, Oren acknowledged that American Jews have traditionally supported the Democratic Party based on values rather than economic interests. However, he suggested that this year could be different.
"In the past, close to 80% of American Jews have voted with the Democratic Party. This year, it's going to be less, not only because of Israel. It has to do with wokeism and political correctness and the difficulty Jews have getting ahead today because they're perceived as white and affluent and not as members of a minority," Oren explained.
While the Jewish vote may not shift the outcome in Democratic strongholds like New York, he said, it could prove decisive in swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Georgia.
"There are as many as 500,000 Israelis who have the right to vote in the U.S. election," he said, highlighting the strong pro-Trump campaign in Israel, including a large billboard urging support for the Republican candidate along Ayalon Highway, one of the nation's main arteries.
He pointed out that many Israeli voters are registered in key swing states such as Pennsylvania and Michigan, and their votes could ultimately determine the election's outcome. "The Israeli vote could determine this election," Oren concluded.
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