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Despite the resumption of hostilities in Gaza against the backdrop of a dangerous societal divide and the absence of the national consensus that followed the October 7 massacre, signs of insubordination within the IDF, the promotion of a draft exemption law for ultra-Orthodox Jews, judicial overhaul efforts and growing protests against the government persist. Within the newly formed IDF General Staff, the true objectives of the renewed campaign remain unusually ambiguous, despite the heavy costs looming ahead.
Two subtle hints regarding the future emerged over the weekend through offhand remarks by Defense Minister Israel Katz and Brig. Gen. (res.) Erez Wiener, who until recently served as the head of the offensive division in the Southern Command.
Without prior coordination, both men revealed what appears to be the beginning of a new war — or at least a military-political operation unprecedented in the prolonged months of ground maneuvers, which concluded in August last year with the IDF’s last ground operation in Rafah. Meanwhile, IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir remains conspicuously silent as mounting waves threaten to engulf the military.
In a Facebook post, Wiener offered his version of the classified documents incident — an affair uncovered by Ynet and Yedioth Ahronoth — where sensitive materials were misplaced in a Ramat Gan parking lot. Zamir and the new head of the Southern Command, Maj. Gen. Yaniv Assor, learned of the incident through the media and immediately dismissed Wiener. Alongside his unusual allegations against fellow IDF officers—whom he accused of attempting to "sabotage" him due to their opposition to his "offensive stance"—Wiener hinted at the IDF's future plans in Gaza.
"It saddens me that after a year and a half of pushing the cart uphill, just as we reached the point where the fighting is poised to take the right turn (which should have occurred a year ago), I will no longer be at the wheel," Wiener wrote, hinting at upcoming developments. He also criticized the "missed opportunities, pressures, and considerations that shaped the chosen path of warfare."
Wiener was no ordinary senior officer in the Southern Command. Throughout the 500 days of the war, including his final week of service, he was responsible for planning the IDF's offensive maneuvers in Gaza, overseeing their tactical execution and long-term strategic implications. He did not deny allegations of unauthorized communication with Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich during the war. Smotrich has repeatedly advocated for the establishment of an Israeli military government in Gaza to replace Hamas' control over the civilian population.
The previous IDF leadership and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant opposed such plans due to their high costs — thousands of soldiers would be required to administer the Gaza Strip, exposing them to significant risk while managing daily life for the local population. Instead, they recommended establishing an alternative Palestinian authority to govern Gaza’s two million residents. This entity, even if partly affiliated with the Palestinian Authority, would require American backing, Egyptian oversight and funding from Gulf states such as the United Arab Emirates.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Smotrich rejected this approach, adhering to their long-standing strategy of dividing Hamas and the Palestinian Authority to prevent the formation of a Palestinian state. This policy remains evident in the government's actions, as Hamas retains control of Gaza a year and a half into the war despite Israel's extensive military and financial efforts.
A second indication came from Defense Minister Katz, who announced that he had ordered the IDF to seize additional territory in Gaza while evacuating the local population and expanding security zones around Israeli border communities. "As long as Hamas continues to refuse to release the hostages, it will lose more and more land, which will be annexed to Israel," Katz declared.
'As long as Hamas continues to refuse to release the hostages, it will lose more and more land, which will be annexed to Israel,' Katz declared
Katz’s statement, approved by Netanyahu, represents a dramatic shift in policy. It suggests that recent IDF territorial advances in Gaza are not solely aimed at combating Hamas but at seizing land to exchange for hostages—or, if Hamas continues to refuse negotiations, to annex these areas to Israel permanently. In other words: land for blood.
Israel has thus far avoided hinting at the possibility of resettling Gaza to maintain international legitimacy for its prolonged military campaign. This legitimacy is increasingly under threat due to international arrest warrants against Netanyahu and Gallant, European arms embargoes and potential legal actions against IDF personnel abroad.
Currently, the IDF's territorial operations focus on occupying and holding limited areas of Gaza without engaging in major combat. This includes securing positions near the former Netzarim corridor—where IDF forces withdrew two months ago but have now returned—as well as sections of the Beit Lahia coastline and the Shabura neighborhood in Rafah.
In these areas, there have been no recent battles, explosions, or casualties. Hamas appears to be conserving its resources, refraining from significant retaliation while preserving its fighters and weaponry within Gaza’s civilian population.
The IDF’s new plan likely involves a more extensive approach than the previous "Generals' Plan," as evidenced by the recent incursion into Jabaliya by the 162nd Division before the ceasefire. That operation involved the forced evacuation of civilians from a wide area and the prevention of their return — a tactic that may now be replicated on a larger scale.
Meanwhile, the IDF has provided little public explanation for the new campaign. Chief Military Spokesperson Brig. Gen. Daniel Hagari has not addressed the media to clarify the operation's objectives beyond the vague assertion of "increasing pressure on Hamas," which shows no signs of collapsing while dozens of Israeli hostages remain captive.
As broad public support for a potential ground offensive — expected to result in hundreds of casualties and thousands of wounded — continues to erode, the crisis of confidence in the government only deepens. The controversy over the draft-dodging legislation, alongside efforts to dismiss both Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar and Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara, has further widened the public’s distrust.
In this charged atmosphere, the silence of the new IDF Chief of Staff, Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, has become increasingly conspicuous. The only act of defiance Zamir has made in recent days was a public show of support for his embattled colleague, Ronen Bar. In a move widely interpreted as symbolic, the IDF released two photos to the media showing Zamir and Bar jointly overseeing the renewed fighting in southern Israel.
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The images conveyed not only a message of “business as usual” in their professional cooperation but were also seen as a quiet show of solidarity with Bar — just days before his expected dismissal, during an exceptionally sensitive and volatile security period.
Concerns within the IDF about growing insubordination are also mounting. Recent incidents include an Air Force navigator and an intelligence officer from Unit 8200 who refused to serve in protest against the government’s judicial overhaul and were subsequently discharged. The greater concern, however, lies with "gray insubordination" — reservists who quietly avoid service without openly defying orders.
Thousands of reservists, particularly in combat units, are failing to report for duty due to mental and physical exhaustion, family crises, or professional commitments. "No battalion commander will punish a reservist who has served nearly a year and risked his life in Gaza or Lebanon but cannot return due to personal hardships," noted a personnel officer in one of the IDF's divisions. "The army has no effective way to address this form of insubordination because of its scale and nature."