No one in the current government’s coalition has an interest in going to elections. This is why all components of the government have been gritting their teeth for too long. Despite numerous disagreements among the coalition members, they know that an election campaign at this time could lead to a result that leaves a significant portion of them out of a future government.
Nevertheless, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition faces four significant challenges on issues at the core of the ideologies of the parties he’s involved with, some of which have the potential to lead to the government's dissolution. Here are the possible obstacles for Netanyahu's coalition:
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National Security Minister Ben-Gvir, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich
(Photo: Alex Kolomoisky, REUTERS/Brendan McDermid)
Resignation of Gantz and Eisenkot
The most immediate threat to the coalition's stability in terms of timing is the planned resignation of the National Unity Party from the government at the end of the week. Some have criticized Minister Benny Gantz for months for his insistence on remaining in the emergency government and for serving as its "bulletproof vest."
Even without the National Unity Party, Netanyahu could theoretically continue with his original 64-member coalition. However, prominent opposition figures and other analysts believe that once Gantz resigns, he’ll cause the first crack in the dam, leading to a flood that will manifest in massive protests and public pressure that will make it difficult for the government to continue functioning. Others believe such an event could escalate to the point of the government's complete dissolution and the dispersal of the Knesset.
Threats from Ben-Gvir and Smotrich and Biden’s gambit
A no less volatile event concerns the Israeli proposal for a hostage deal, revealed last week by U.S. President Joe Biden. Biden presented three phases in a plan to end the war in Gaza, however, Likud MKs and other right-wing government partners, such as National Security Minister Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, clarified they would dismantle the government if such a deal were accepted.
Smotrich himself already held a series of meetings with Religious Zionist rabbis and associates on Sunday regarding the possible deal and its implications. The option of withdrawing from the government was also raised in these meetings.
Netanyahu invited Ben-Gvir to a meeting in his office on Monday to present him with the draft of the hostage deal. The move comes after Ben-Gvir threatened to leave the government over what he called a " preposterous deal."
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Final days of Netanyahu's coalition?
(Photo: Amit Shabi, Photo: Alex Kolomoisky, Yariv Katz, EPA)
The Prime Minister's Office issued a letter to Ben-Gvir saying the agreements in the draft don’t include a pause in the fighting. Ben-Gvir and Smotrich, like the other War Cabinet ministers, were excluded from reviewing the proposal and didn’t watch Biden’s announcement.
The hostage deal, assuming Hamas agrees to it, is politically complex for two reasons. First, due to the very detailed phrasing by Ben-Gvir and Smotrich, who previously allowed discussion of a deal to take place, with Ben-Gvir even staying in the government despite voting against it. This time, however, it seems what previously passed in silent consent won’t happen a second time, and the two are promising to dismantle the government.
The second reason is that if Netanyahu had until now managed to maneuver himself so that a complete deal wouldn’t be brought to a vote at the government, Biden's public move would now force him to deal with the issue in the Knesset.
If the deal to return the hostages and end the war proceeds it could have far-reaching consequences for Netanyahu, and he’ll have to choose between the deal and his government.
The ultra-Orthodox draft law
This is one of the most explosive challenges currently facing the government, partly due to the unrest the draft law is stirring in Israel’s ultra-Orthodox sector, as evidenced by the widespread protests following the High Court’s discussion on the law on Sunday.
Officials in Netanyahu's office as well as senior ministers close to him, have been trying to find a solution to the problem for weeks. The IDF’s needs are more urgent than ever due to the ongoing war, public attention is focused on the issue, and even the large right-wing base is waiting to see how the ultra-Orthodox sector will begin to bear the growing military burden.
The situation is further complicated because, even after many hours of discussions, it seems difficult to impossible to reach a version of the law that will be acceptable both to the ultra-Orthodox parties and to Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Minister Benny Gantz.
In fact, any law that enshrines the overarching principle that everyone in Israel should serve in the military is unacceptable to the ultra-Orthodox, and the road to a clash within the coalition is close. If, under the auspices of the High Court's decision all of the yeshiva’s budgets are revoked, pressure will start mounting that will inevitably lead to the dissolution of the Knesset.
A Likud cessation?
For a long time, it seems Netanyahu has lost his deterrence not only externally but also within his government and even his party. An increasing number of Knesset members and ministers criticize his moves, flank him from the right, and warn that their vote can no longer be counted on for certain issues.
Among these are Knesset members such as Amichai Chikli, Dan Illouz, and Moshe Saada, who have become a unified front on distinctly right-wing issues facing the government, and the three regularly criticize the government's conduct, including on the draft law issue.
In addition to them, Gallant and Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee Chairman Yuli Edelstein have adopted an independent line and often challenge Netanyahu. Recently, Minister Nir Barkat joined their criticism. Additionally, there are other opponents of the party's policy from before October 7, such as Danny Danon and even David Bitan, who has grievances about the Likud's actions on many issues.
The likelihood that all of these will unite into a full-fledged rebellion within the Likud is not high, but a scenario in which at least some of the party's senior members decide to make a move against Netanyahu is on the table.