Six weeks after Israel’s war against Hamas broke out and while the IDF is deeply situated in the Gaza Strip, the rate of rocket fire launched toward Israel is decreasing. On Friday, the lowest number of alerts was registered since the beginning of the war, with 21 - and included isolated alarms in areas close to the Gaza and northern border, and a barrage aimed at Ashdod at noon.
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A look at the rocket fire over the weeks since the war began indicates a similar trend showing a significant decrease in the rate of fire. The number of rocket barrages on the first day of the war on October 7 was the largest in the country's history - 4,301 alerts were heard, 3,100 of which were within the first four hours of Hamas’ surprise attack.
According to data from the IDF Home Front Command, in the week after (October 8th to October 14th), heavy firing continued, totaling 1,749 alerts. In the second week - 818 alerts, in the third – 802. From the beginning of Hamas’ ground operation in the Strip which took place on the fourth week of the war, the number of alerts has significantly decreased. In the fourth week of the war, there were 582 alerts, and on the fifth, 383.
Ashkelon has been the most targeted city since the beginning of the war, followed by Sderot, Rishon LeZion, Netivot, Holon, and Ashdod. However, a look at the launches in the past two weeks shows a significant decrease in rocket fire toward cities in central and southern Israel, especially those aimed at Ashkelon.
While 62 alerts were heard in the city on October 7, in the week that followed, a total of 49 alerts were heard, and in the two subsequent weeks, 16 alerts sounded in each. In the week following the beginning of the IDF’s ground offensive, only three alerts were heard in Ashkelon. The last time an alert was heard was on November 4.
In Be’er Sheva, one alert sounded this week, with two sounding in the central Tel Aviv, and three in Rishon LeZion. This is in contrast to significantly higher numbers in the weeks before, especially in the period when the IDF didn’t enter Gaza.
Since October 19, rocket launches in whole hours or half-hours have only intensified. Daily updated data from the IDF Home Front Command shows that out of 1,893 rocket alerts, 820 were heard in the first four minutes of the hour and the final minute of the hour. Another 233 occurred in the 30th and 31st minute of the hour.
The vast majority of alerts that don’t take place at the start of the hour are for communities in close to the Gaza border. In fact, since the start of military operations in Gaza, all four alerts in Tel Aviv occurred in the first few minutes at the beginning of the hour, six out of seven alerts in Ashdod, and six out of nine in Rishon LeZion.
However, the number of alerts isn’t equal to the overall number of rockets fired at Israel since the beginning of the war, which the IDF has yet to officially provide. Sometimes a single rocket launch leads to alerts in multiple areas, and sometimes a heavy rocket barrage is launched almost simultaneously.