Nimanix bourse – trading in intelligence
New Israeli start-up hopes to provide alternative to polls and focus groups by offering political campaigns and business organizations a dynamic bourse of human intelligence vying to predict the next big trend in everything from geopolitics to soft drinks
A new Israeli company named Nimanix is trying to take the world of global forecasting to the next level. Launched in May the website allows participants to simulate a trading world where the currency is geopolitics and business events rather than stock.
The projections offer simple yes or no answers to genuinely complex questions, drawing from patented unique algorithms that must account for a staggering amount of variables. Will Hamas still control Gaza in August? who will win the Israeli Pop Idol? and what will the US Federal Funds Rate be in 2008?
Nimanix also allows for even more complicates scenarios, such as what will be the makeup of the 18th Knesset.
Any registered player can participate in the trade of any event, based on his interest and level of knowledge.
"Nimanix will be able to provide a 'collective intelligence on demand' that will allow giant corporations or just one student, to purchase five years or five minutes of the kind of technological forecasting and decision-making services that previously could be afforded only by government institutions," said Dr. Asher Idan in his review of the site.
Say goodbye to polls and focus groups
Upon registration, new usersto the site receive 100,000 points (125,000 points for users willing to provide more information in a longer application form) and their Prediction Status is set to zero.
The more correct predictions a user makes, the more points they earn and the higher their Prediction Status rises – boosting their market power and influence.
The bourse is dynamic and the website's AJAX interface displays the fluctuating value of individual stocks in real time.
According to individual achievements, system managers can locate "smart groups" for various fields. Be it a group of political mavericks or users with the uncanny ability to predict the next big thing in soft drinks. Here is where the Nimanix business model comes into the picture, the founders of the program hope to offer organizations the services of their "smart groups" to aid in decision-making processes, manage risks and identify brand trends – in addition to, or instead of focus groups and polling.
At this early stage, only some 200 users are active on the Nimanix bourse. The company plans to reward successful participants in the future based on their performance, with funds coming either from the
business organizations' research departments or through Nimanix profits.
At this point however, the reward for correctly predicting events is higher placement on the Prediction Status ranking and excelling in the eyes of the community.
