Roni Sofer
Photo: Gabi Menashe
No threat to Olmert’s vacation
PM can take a break knowing he faces no immediate security, political threats
This Passover,
Israel’s security situation isn’t simple, but it doesn’t pose an immediate threat either. The prime minister, in his holiday interviews to the press, couldn’t promise neither peace nor security. For the time being, we see no results to his hard work – he admits it too. He knows that one incident, such as a lethal rocket attack or suicide bomber, could lead to a flare-up vis-à-vis Iran’s associates, Syria,
Hizbullah,
and Hamas.
Therefore, despite all the calming words by Olmert
and Barak,
Israel
is also preparing for war.
On the diplomatic front, Olmert knows that he is in a cruel race to secure an agreement with the Palestinians. Bush ends his term in office on January 20, and on the other hand there are growing calls to push the elections here forward. Olmert would be glad to show a diplomatic achievement, but things have not moved forward at the proper pace. Even if they did, he knows that even had he secured a signed agreement with Mahmoud Abbas,
Ismail Haniyeh and Khaled Mashaal would still be there, along with half the Palestinian people. It’s clear to Olmert that even agreements with the Palestinian Authority and its president won’t bring peace.
Interview
Nahum Barnea, Shimon Shiffer
In special Passover interview with Yedioth Ahronoth, prime minister says now is time for actions, not words. He feels fine, extends his hand in peace to Syria, convinced Iran won't attain nukes, and certain next elections will see him victorious
Under these circumstances, the prime minister is directing his energies domestically, in a bid to reinforce his political status. He is doing it via quiet alliances – with Ehud Barak, with Tzipi Livni, and with Shas. Barak was granted great maneuvering space on the defense front, and today there is much greater cooperation between the two. Livni, on the other hand, is also going through a good period. Even though in recent weeks she has been creating an agenda ahead of the race for Kadima’s leadership, she is getting her space from Olmert – see her trip to Qatar last week and the speech she delivered there on behalf of the State of Israel.
Meanwhile, Olmert continues to reinforce his relationship with Shas. Eli Yishai, who managed to dictate to Olmert the declaration that Jerusalem is not on the negotiations table at this time, is exploiting this fully. For the time being, the regular threat to quit the government has paid off.
International pressure will wait
It appears that anyone hoping to take over the premiership, and those able to influence it, have relaxed this past week. Barak realizes there is no point in elections at the end of the year, because he does not have the electoral power to win them. Olmert’s rivals within Kadima – Livni, Mofaz, Sheetrit, and Dichter – need some more time to build themselves up. The Pensioners’ Party still doesn’t quite know what it wants, and meanwhile its Chairman, Rafi Eitan, likes it around the government table. As to Shas, it prefers the current situation, rather than joining forces with Netanyahu and Lieberman and pushing the elections forward.
So this Passover, Olmert is not facing political pressure. The international pressure will also wait a few weeks, until Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice returns or until Bush’s expected visit in May.
The only thing that can ruin the prime minister’s Passover vacation is the security situation. The mini-crisis with Syria indeed faded, but Assad says he is preparing for war, just in case. Hizbullah continues to arm and to provoke Israel, with words only for the time being. Hamas provokes Israel on the fences of Gaza and threatens to breach the border with Egypt. Ahmadinejad continues to enrich uranium and boost the number of centrifuges. Yet none of those threats seems immediate enough to prevent Olmert from going on his vacation with family and friends in the Galilee.
