Diskin: PA heading for tumultuous times

The situation in the Palestinian Authority is volatile and may result in political turmoil, Shin Bet Chief Yuval Diskin told cabinet ministers Sunday.

Diskin noted that as Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas will end his tenure in early 2009, the PA will face another potentially stormy presidential election. "With the rift between the Palestinian factions so deep it will be nearly impossible to hold an election," he said.

The current situation, he added, has four possible solutions: Abbas can end his tenure as planned; the factions can devise a constitutional solution which would allow him to remain in power; Fatah and Hamas can agree on an election date; or Abbas can choose to declare Gaza Strip mutinous, which will immediately bring about the dissolution of the Palestinian parliament and an emergency general elections.

Hamas seems satisfied with the current situation, in which Abbas' tenure is nearing its natural end, Diskin said. If no solution is found then according to the Palestinian constitution the speaker of the house will become acting chairman of the Palestinian Authority.

Abdel Aziz Duwaik, who is the elected Speaker of the Palestinian Legislative Council for Hamas, is currently held in an Israeli prison, and so his deputy, Ahmed Baher, may end up as chairman of the PA.

'Truce violated 36 times'

Diskin further noted the Palestinian Authority's increased enforcement in the West Bank, and said that Palestinian security forces have recently detained 200 Hamas men and have shut down 45 of the organization's institutions.

However, the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas has been breached 36 times in the past months,  Diskin told cabinet ministers.

Despite the violations, noted Diskin, the ceasefire is still holding up well, and while 36 incidents of Qassam and mortar shell fire were recorded, this marks a significant decline compared to the 300 shooting incidents recorded in the month prior to the ceasefire.

The defense establishment believes that Hamas is motivated to maintain the ceasefire, Diskin said, but it is incapable of dealing with all the renegade elements in Gaza, most of which are believed to be affiliated with the Islamic Jihad.

Nevertheless, added Diskin, Hamas is using the ceasefire in order to restock on weapons and improve its warfare capabilities. The Egyptians, he added, are cracking down on weapons' smugglings, a move that resulted in less explosives being transferred into the Gaza Strip, but there are still large quantities of light weapons being smuggled into the Strip, along with an increase in the digging of tunnels. The latter, he noted, is a "substantial cause for concern."