The day after the primaries
Nobody really knows what’s in store for us following upcoming Kadima primaries
In a week, unless the Kadima primaries require a second round, Israel’s political establishment will attempt to regain its sanity. After months of shakeups, crises, threats, and drama, the Kadima primaries winner will attempt to form a new-old government on the basis of the current one. For the time being, the uncertainty among politicians grows – in fact, nobody really knows what’s in store.
Four candidates are in the race, and the battle between Tzipi Livni and Shaul Mofaz appears to be close. The latest polls predict a big Livni victory, yet deeper surveys undertaken on behalf of the foreign minister’s campaign show that only several thousand registered Kadima voters separate the top two candidates.
This means that whoever is able to mobilize their supporters to the polling stations on Wednesday has greater chances of winning. In the past three years Mofaz invested great efforts in moving closer to Kadima’s 300 main activists, who are supposed to influence thousands of registered voters. On the other hand, Livni invested much less in inside politics, although in recent weeks her supporters dedicated great efforts in a bid to change the picture.
While uncertainty exists regarding the primaries result, the picture regarding the day after is even less clear. Livni has been conveying a desire to maintain the current government makeup – but not at any price. Meanwhile, Mofaz has pledged to undertake almost any effort in order to form a new government in the current Knesset.
However, for the time being, coalition partners are flexing their muscles and are playing it hard to get. Shas’ Eli Yishai claims that he will not be waiving the demand for higher child allowances and presents them as an unequivocal condition for Shas participation in the government. The Labor party maintains a lower profile. Chairman Barak talks about “stateliness” and the need to form a new government, but senior Labor officials admit that “there is no telling what Barak’s decision will be the day after. He is completely unpredictable.
In the past, Labor officials mentioned the Justice portfolio as a condition for joining a new government. Yet the tone has changed by now and the party no longer pledges to demand the sensitive portfolio. Meanwhile, Barak’s close associates have made it clear in recent days that there is no intention to waive the demand for the Education portfolio. In fact, most senior Labor figures are interested in joining the next government, should it be formed. The impression is that Barak, who is aware of his poor showing in the polls, is interested in buying some more time in the Defense Ministry rather than being dragged into new elections.
“The problem is that there is no telling what sort of nonsense will end up leading us to elections,” a senior political figure says. “We may see a situation whereby without really wanting to, as a result of all sorts of insistent demands, we will end up finding ourselves going to elections that nobody wants.”
For the time being, the chances of any one of the top two candidates to form a government are about 50-50. However, the likelihood is expected to grow significantly the day after the primaries. “It will be a whole new ballgame,” a senior Labor official said this week. “The moment we have a new boss, the approach will be entirely different and people will be flexing their muscles to a much lesser extent.”
Olmert won’t play any games
The one thing that is a little clearer within this cloud of uncertainty is Ehud Olmert’s expected conduct. The outgoing prime minister, who feels tired, hurt, and exhausted by the political campaign conducted in a bid to topple him, does not intend to play any games.
In the speech where he announced that he does not intend to run for Kadima’s leadership, Olmert vowed to resign his post after a new Kadima leader is elected. “He will go to the president, resign, and recommend that whoever won the primaries form the next government,” his close associates say. “He will remain in his post until a new government is formed, or until we go to elections in case no government is formed. In any case, Olmert does not intend to play any games or support any sort of shady deal on behalf of anyone. He will do exactly as promised and keep his word to the public.”
Olmert’s resignation will set a political stopwatch into action, framing coalition negotiations into a predefined timetable. President Peres will task Kadima’s new leader with forming the next government and grant him or her 21 days to complete the mission. Should the candidate announce that efforts to form a government have failed, general elections will be held within 90 days. Throughout this period, by the way, Ehud Olmert will continue to serve as prime minister. Foreign Minister Livni has said in the past that she will not be renouncing her principles in order to form a new government. Mofaz declared that he will ask Olmert to stay until he is able to form a government, without any time pressure. It is unclear whether Olmert, who as noted intends to resign, will comply with such request.
The estimate is that whoever wins will be calling for a “national emergency government” that would facilitate government stability. Knesset Speaker Dalia Itzik is also expected to press in that direction. However, it is highly doubtful whether such attempt will succeed: Benjamin Netanyahu has made it clear time and again that he has no intention of joining any government that is not led by Likud.
Many other unanswered questions will have to wait for the day after: Will Haim Ramon remain in the
political establishment or quit? Despite his denials, more and more senior figures in various parties report that he is signaling his intention to bid politics farewell at about the same time as his close friend Olmert.
And who will replace the foreign minister should she become the prime minister? Kadima officials are mentioning several names, including Minister Meir Sheetrit, who intends to engage in negotiations on his future ahead of the second primaries round, should one be held. And what will happen in Kadima should Livni lose? Will she and most other senior party figures remain in Kadima under Mofaz’s leadership, or will she choose to split and establish a new political faction? According to some persistent rumors, political alternatives that include the formation of a new faction, reminiscent of what Kadima was supposed to be, are quietly being examined.
