Arab population growing
Photo: Reuters
Will Arabs hit the polls?
East Jerusalem Arabs refuse to vote in mayoral elections, but will this change soon?
In 2000, there were about 200,000 Arabs living in east Jerusalem. By now, they number about 267,000, and according to estimates they will number no less than 371,000 by 2020. Had one of the candidates in the Jerusalem mayoral race represented them, we could have seen an Arab mayor in the capital as early as next year.
The Arab vote could hold immense power, yet for the time being most Jerusalem Arabs do not vote, in order not to recognize Israel's sovereignty in the city.
In the upcoming elections, Arabs will constitute 30.8% of eligible voters, compared to the 20.1% of ultra-Orthodox voters. In the next elections, the electoral power of east Jerusalem Arabs is expected to rise to 34%.
However, with a few exceptions, Jerusalem Arabs do not make it to the polling stations. The reason for this is the Palestinian Authority, which acts based on political-national motives: The PA views Arab voting as de-facto recognition of the Israeli establishment.
"It's not a matter of electoral power," says Palestinian politician Hanan Ashrawi. "For us this is an occupied area, and we won't legitimize it through voting. Israel's control in Jerusalem is illegal, and the Palestinians cannot take part in an illegal process."
According to Ashrawi, Arab residents will only be voting in future Palestinian elections.
'Gradual change'
However, some observers do not dismiss the prospect of Jerusalem Arabs eventually hitting the polls. Al-Quds University President Sari Nusseibeh says the matter has already been discussed in the past."If we reach a situation whereby it will be clear to everyone that negotiations on a two-state solution are no longer realistic, I won't be surprised to see the Palestinians reconsider their position regarding voting. If we don't reach a two-state solution, this will be the direction in the next elections already."
Israel Kimchi, a senior researcher at the Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies, believes that this process is already taking shape at this time.
"In my view, a gradual change of perception among east Jerusalem Arabs is already taking place," he says. "Toady, the fear of the Palestinian Authority is largely evaporating, especially among young people, and there is willingness to vote in the elections. Their electoral power is great: They are at least 100,000 more people than the ultra-Orthodox community, and we already saw what the Orthodox have been able to achieve."
