Pence came to Israel to tick off his to-do list
Op-ed: When Donald Trump took office as US president, he promised to broker ‘the deal of the century’ in the Middle East; a year later, the Middle East has never been further away from Washington’s heart. In such a reality, the vice president’s visit will mainly be remembered as a visit that never actually happened.
While Israel celebrated his short visit to Jerusalem with a mixture of extreme pleasure and excitement, it was hardly covered by the American media, apart from an occasional word or photo and a brief discussion of the “Western Wall rules,” which kept female journalists at the back of the vice president’s visit to the holy site while their male colleagues were given free access. This episode raised quite a few eyebrows and drew comparisons to backward regimes that practice sex segregation—before moving on to the Russia investigation.
The probe into the Russian interference in the 2016 US presidential elections is expanding, and last week it was reported that Special Counsel Robert Mueller was about to summon President Donald Trump himself for questioning. Meanwhile, according to reports, Mueller’s people have already interviewed Attorney General Jeff Sessions and CIA Director Mike Pompeo.
Mueller would like to question Trump primarily on obstruction of justice issues. Did the American president ask James Comey, who served as FBI director before being fired by Trump, to drop the investigation against Mike Flynn, Trump’s former national security advisor? Comey addressed the issue in his Congress testimony, implying that the president had lied.
From Nixon to Trump
Trump claimed that Comey had asked to have dinner with him at the White House because he wanted to keep his job. Comey said, under oath, that it wasn’t true and refuted other comments made by Trump, which he had documented in memos that he distributed to his colleagues at the FBI in real time. In other words, Comey reported every conversation or meeting he had with Trump. Everything was documented.
Obstruction of justice is a serious thing. President Richard Nixon was forced to resign not because of the break-in at the Democratic National Committee (DNC) headquarters, but mainly because of the attempts to cover up the affair. Nixon was shown the way out because of a cover-up, and now Mueller could accuse Trump of obstruction of justice in the Russia affair.
The “Russiagate” investigation is stirring up the political establishment in Washington and overclouding the American president’s performance. And this is where Mike Pence steps in. If the investigation ends Trump’s political career, the vice president will take charge.
So far, the investigation hasn’t led to any information requiring an impeachment process against Trump at Congress, and such information is unlikely to be found. At the moment, according to what has been revealed, there’s no indication that it’s going to happen. The question is how far will the Republican establishment go against the president if it turns out that he obstructed justice or lies or did both, after Mueller puts the cards—I mean, the evidence—on the table.
The Republican establishment likely won’t do much against the president, unless the Republicans lose their majority in one of the Houses of Congress—or even in both, as some polls suggest—in the midterm elections, which will be held in less than a year from now. Such an event could wound Trump’s ego.
Pence warming up, just in case
Senior Republican Party officials have been discussing the possibility that Trump would resign to prevent an impeachment over obstruction of justice and a painful political loss in the midterm elections. According to this imaginary scenario, Trump would tell the Republicans that he was leaving the White House because inferior people like them didn’t deserve to have a giant like him as their president.
The chance of such a scenario occurring is extremely low, considering the size of the president’s ego and his obsessive desire to show the world that he can do everything better than his predecessor, Barack Obama. But as long as Mueller’s investigation is ongoing, it’s unclear what other “bombs” he might drop on Washington’s political system. We’ll just have to wait and see.
In any event, Mike Pence is unofficially warming up on the bench, just in case. Pence, a former Indiana governor, was pulled out of his dull career in national politics by Trump, and is at the closest position to perhaps replace the Republican president one day.
And this is where the liberal Democrats come into the picture. Some of them told me last week that the way they see it, considering America’s best interest, they would rather have Trump as president. They may see Trump as a blatant, racist and loud bully, but they definitely prefer him over the ultra-conservative Pence.
The Democrats consider the American vice president’s views unenlightened. Unlike Trump, however, he doesn’t change his views according to political needs. He actually has a proper ideology.
Pence defines himself first and foremost as an evangelical, and only then as an American. He doesn’t believe in a woman’s right to her own body and is against abortion even if the pregnancy is the result of rape or incest. He has declared that he will never meet with a woman alone unless he has his wife with him, apparently for fear of being tempted by her and committing a sin.
More dangerous than Trump?
Pence’s visit to Israel was like a dream come true matching his religious faith. He believes in Armageddon and in the revival of Jesus and in the role the Jews should play in it. He loves Israel for deep religious reasons, a love which horrifies many liberals, not just in the United States.
During Trump’s first year in office, there have often been reports of chaos in the place where the US and the world are supposed to be run from. Trump has been accused of being rude and ignorant and of offending minorities, foreigners and women.
Pence is the exact opposite. He seems stately, levelheaded, calculated, a man who could have been an air conditioning engineer or a schoolteacher and just happened to find himself in politics. He doesn’t have the obsession to prove at any given moment that the world would stop moving without him.
American liberals see the vice president as more dangerous than Trump, because unlike Trump, who has no ideology or proper world view, Pence has an ideology which terrifies half of the American people.
Israeli officials didn’t make these distinctions during Pence’s visit, when he was applauded for announcing that the US embassy would move to Jerusalem by the end of the year. Israel’s peace seekers should have been concerned by the statements made during the vice president’s visit, as Pence essentially announced the end of the process, the end of the negotiations.
Together, Trump and Pence put a lid on hope. The announcement of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital was perceived by the Palestinians as a slap in the face because it wasn’t coupled with a declaration that east Jerusalem would be the capital of the future Palestinian state.
Just like there is no special ceremony to announce the end of democracy in a certain state, there is no special ceremony to announce the end of efforts for peace. But that’s exactly what the Trump administration did. It not only declared Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and announced the embassy move, it also dramatically cut US aid to Palestinian refugees. These two decisions have led to a suspension of ties between the American administration and the Palestinians.
A senior American official said in a press briefing during Pence’s visit that there had been no direct contact between American government workers and their Palestinian counterparts since the day Trump recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. The line of communication between Washington and Ramallah is silent. This line was had always been warm with previous American administrations, even during the biggest crises and the most difficult disagreements.
Trump took office with major promises to reach the “deal of the century” in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. A year later, he buried the deal before it even took off. Moreover, and that’s what half of the American people are scared of, the Republican president also buried the American ability to serve as an unbiased mediator in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, a position it had held for decades in the eras of both Democratic and Republican presidents.
When one country gives up its traditional leadership, there is no void left in the world. As soon as the US no longer fulfills its role as the world’s leader and is no longer perceived as a credible mediator, another entity will come along and grab hold of the leadership. Perhaps Germany, or maybe Russia. And when the US is no longer perceived as a credible mediator in the Middle East, it’s not only bad for America—it’s mostly bad for Israel.
The only conclusion is that Trump isn’t interested in bringing about a deal, or can’t do it or doesn’t believe in it. He may have realized that he won’t gain any fame from this conflict, being used to deals that crown him as a “winner.”
The Russian investigation is paralyzing the White House in several areas. The Middle East is just one of them. The president’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, who was supposed to carry out the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations is neck-deep in the “Russiagate” investigation as well.
Pence came to the Middle East to tick off his to-do list. He didn’t meet with the Palestinians because they refused. Trump made a lot of noise about the Middle East when he took office. He praised the components of the Saudi peace plan, but his unfamiliarity with the issue and its details led him to a dead end.
After one year in office, the Middle East has never been further away from Washington’s heart. Trump promised a peace deal and has yet to deliver the goods. In such a reality, Pence’s visit to the Holy Land will mainly be remembered as a visit that never actually happened.
