Setting the stage for post-Netanyahu politics
Opinion: With indictments looming, it is likely that this will be the prime minister's final term – if he wins, making this election a test of who will succeed him and his Likud party as the de facto leaders of the right-wing
It is very likely that Benjamin Netanyahu is on the cusp of his fifth term in office. This is an impressive political achievement by any standard, both in Israel and on the international stage. Netanyahu will undoubtedly be remembered in the annals of the State of Israel, if only for his lengthy stint as prime minister.
If Netanyahu does win Tuesday's vote and assembles the next government, he will soon break the record of David Ben-Gurion and become the prime minister who served the longest term in the history of the state.
Nonetheless, it is clear to the entire political system that Netanyahu's time in office is nearing its end. Saving some unexpected legal development in the coming months, this will be his last term as prime minister.
There are those who are happy at this prospect, while others genuinely fear for the fate of the country post-Netanyahu, but wherever you stand, this is the reality. In the end, the political system will not allow for a prime minister who is under indictment, and as a result it will be the end of the Netanyahu era.
This is not a distant reality or an opportunity for airy speculation about what might happen next. The fact that the Netanyahu era is coming to a close makes these elections far more intriguing – and significant - than previous campaigns.
The enduring pro-Bibi/anti-Bibi divide around which the entire Israeli political system has centered is coming to an end, and the rest of the political players will have to adjust accordingly. As such, the current elections are not only a vote for the 21st Knesset, they are also the starting point for reshaping the political system in the post-Bibi era.
The first impact will, of course, be felt by the right-wing camp. The assumption that the Likud is the right-wing's ruling party will have to be re-examined, perhaps for the first time in the history of the state.
On the right, in its broadest sense, there are at least two parties and two leaders who see themselves as suitable candidates to replace Netanyahu as the leader of the right and the Likud as its ruling party. The two leaders are, of course, Naftali Bennett and Moshe Feiglin, with their New Right and Zehut parties respectively.
How these two leaders and their parties fare in the exit polls on Tuesday night and the actual results that will begin to take shape on Wednesday will determine to a great extent whether either will emerge as potential heirs to the right-wing throne and the Netanyahu government. A bad showing for either would take them out of the line of the succession.
But the right-wing camp is, of course, not the whole story. In the post-Netanyahu era, the leftist camp will also undergo a shakeup. In this case, the elections results will impact on whether Blue and White becomes the leader of the leftist camp or whether the party that was hastily thrown together in the run-up to the elections will crumble just as quickly.
If Labor manages to pull off a last-minute, poll-beating surprise and secures more than seats in the single digits, it too may make a comeback as a contender to the left-wing throne.
Either way, the outcome of the current elections is a bellwether for the future of Israeli politics. And that is something that every voter should bear this in mind when they cast their ballot.
