Noa Kirel in semi-finals
(Kan, EBU)
Noa Kirel's phenomenal performance in the first semi-final of Eurovision brought Israel to sixth place in the betting odds table, still lagging far behind Sweden and Finland, who are leading the table.
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Nonetheless, all three representatives will be among the 26 nations competing in the 2023 Eurovision final, which will take place on Saturday evening.
According to the Eurovisionworld website, which collects winning chances of betting sites, it appears that the likelihood of the Israeli song winning stands at three percent. On one of the leading betting sites, Noa Kirel's winning odds are 1:13, meaning that if someone bets 10 euros on the Israeli song and it is announced as the winner, they would receive 130 euros. Other websites present lower winning odds.
The artist who has been leading the rankings is Swedish singer Loreen, who already won the Eurovision held in Baku, Azerbaijan in 2012. Betting agencies estimate that the Swedish song has a probability of around 49 percent to win the competition in Liverpool. With most agencies, if you bet 10 euros on the Swedish song, you would only receive 14-16 euros in case of a victory.
In second place, with a significant gap from the first, is Finland, with a 20 percent chance of winning. Following that is Ukraine, last year's winner, with a seven percent chance. In fourth place is France with a four percent chance, likewise Spain in fifth place, while Israel and Norway (ranked sixth and seventh) settle for a three percent chance of victory.
Betting agencies present the odds of winning based on the received bets and also on analysis conducted by experts. Therefore, if at a certain point, there are many bets placed on a specific song, the odds of winning will decrease. When it is seen that a certain song is losing popularity online, the odds of winning would be increased, in order to attract bets. As for the Israeli song, the ranking of three percent has been stable.
The website allows users to vote in a poll for the performance that they think will win, without receiving any reward. On one hand, this makes the votes free of interest. But on the other hand, the results are not precise because they don't specify the origin of the voters, and if certain groups from a specific country tried to influence the results of the poll. Additionally, in the real-time Eurovision voting, each country is given equal power in scoring - so a country like France with around 67.5 million inhabitants contributes 12 points, which is equivalent to the 12 points given by San Marino, where only some 34,000 inhabitants reside.
In the betting odds, Sweden is leading with 18 percent, and not far behind is Finland with 16 percent. In third place is Noa Kirel with eight percent, followed by Norway, Germany, and Armenia.
To what extent do the predictions accurately forecast the winners?
Last year, Ukraine won the Eurovision mainly due to the support for the country involved in the conflict with Russia, rather than because of the song by the band Kalush. The bettors last year gave Sweden a 14 percent chance of winning, yet they ended up in fourth place. However, the United Kingdom was given a six percent chance of winning, and Sam Ryder's song came in second place. For this reason, the event is hosted in Liverpool this year, because Russia's invasion of Ukraine prevented the winning country from hosting the 2023 contest.
In 2021, there was a close battle among the top contenders in the predictions between representatives from Italy and France, with Malta not far behind. However, in reality, Italy defeated France in a close battle, while Malta finished in seventh place. As for the Israeli representative, Eden Alene, prediction agencies gave her less than a one percent chance of winning, and she ended up ranked 19th in the table. Eden finished in 17th place, far behind Italy and France.
In 2020, the Eurovision Song Contest did not take place due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
In 2019, prediction agencies gave a 51 percent chance for the Netherlands to win the Eurovision held in Tel Aviv - and indeed, the Netherlands won. Italy came in second place, receiving only a nine percent chance of winning by the prediction agencies. The gap between the two countries was quite small in the actual competition.
In 2018, the prediction agencies were mistaken. In that Eurovision, Cyprus was given a winning chance of 37 percent, while the chances of Israel's representative, Netta Barzilai, stood at 24 percent. However, in reality, Israel was the winner, and Cyprus finished in second place. Austria came in third place, despite being given less than a one percent chance of winning by the agencies. How did this happen? If it were only up to the judges, Austria would have been the winner.
It is important to remember that the countries get 1 to 12 points from the judges, and their score carries equal weight to the audience's vote. So sometimes, as in Eurovision 2018, the judges' score, which the prediction agencies take less into account, can be completely different from the votes of the audiences at home.
Based on the current Eurovision data and prediction tables, it is reasonable to assume that Noa Kirel will finish in the top ten, and she may even rise to fifth place thanks to her remarkable performance. However, the ongoing Operation Shield and Arrow in the Gaza Strip may affect support for Israel and cause the Israeli song to rank much lower. It is highly possible that if Kirel were not representing another country, her chances of winning would have been much higher.