With the first Eurovision Song Contest semi-final already behind us, it's time to patiently wait for Thursday, when Eden Golan will take the stage in Malmo, Sweden, and attempt to qualify for Saturday's grand finale. And it seems there's good reason to wait as bookies predict Golan will qualify for the final and give her a handsome 88% chance to do so.
According to the betting sites, the Netherlands and Switzerland are leading in the contest’s second semi-final, followed by Greece. Israel is ranked fourth, followed by Armenia, Norway, Georgia, Austria, Belgium and Estonia. According to reports, the six countries in Golan's semi-final that aren’t expected to qualify for the finals are Denmark, Albania, San Marino, Latvia, Czech Republic and Malta - which only receives a 19% chance of making the Saturday finals.
It should be noted those sites employ analysts who take into account reasons unrelated to performance or song lyrics by themselves - such as the Gaza war, which is likely to influence the Israeli song’s position, but it now seems it won’t prevent Israel from reaching the grand finals.
Ultimately, 26 countries will qualify for the Eurovision final, including the host Sweden, and five countries that don’t need to qualify through the early stages including the UK, Germany, Spain, France and Italy, which are the main sponsors of the European Broadcasting Union (EBU).
Another 31 countries - including Luxembourg, returning after an absence of 30 years from the event - are competing in the preliminary stage, with the top ten from each semi-final round advancing to the grand finals.
So what are Israel’s chances in the finals? Eden Golan has slipped from her top position in recent days and is now in a respectable eighth place with only a 3% chance of winning the event. According to betting sites, anyone who bets one euro on Golan abroad will receive between 20 and 36 euros if she wins.
Bettors also give her a higher chance of 10% to be in the top three in the finals, a 27% chance to be among the top five, and a 63% chance to finish in the top ten. Bettors expect Golan to reach eighth place in the judging panel’s decision, while her scoring according to the viewers is expected at fifth place. As mentioned, the weighted score of the judges and viewers places Golan in eighth place, according to the summary of major betting sites.
Leading in the betting is Croatia with a 36% chance of winning. Switzerland follows with 16%, Italy is ranked third, followed by Ukraine, Ireland, the Netherlands and France.
According to betting sites, judges will hold a close battle between France, Switzerland and Italy, while in the viewer's vote, Croatia is expected to win by a large margin with Ukraine, the Netherlands, Ireland and Israel far behind. Nevertheless, due to the consideration of the judges' votes alongside the viewer votes - all betting sites predict Croatia will win the contest.
And what countries have the weaker songs? According to betting sites, Spain will finish last, and Germany and the UK - like Spain, who don’t need to go through the preliminary stage - have a good chance of finishing at the bottom. Israel, despite being ranked eighth at a chance for winning - is also ranked eighth with the chance to finish last, with a slim 2%. This is where the politics and antisemitic sentiments blowing across Europe can be seen.
From initial data analyses, it appears Golan will qualify for the final on Saturday but won’t manage to break into the top five, and it’s possible she won’t even make it to the top ten – it’s estimated the reason behind this isn’t due to her song or performance’s quality, but because of the Gaza war and rising antisemitism.