The Israel Meteorological Service (IMS) published a report presenting updated data and alarming climate forecasts for extreme weather events and forecasts in the country until the close of the century. Despite the dire forecast and the urgent need for preparation, several government ministries led by the Finance Ministry have yet to begin planning for the future.
The IMS said in the report issued on Tuesday that its conclusions are based on in-depth studies that, for the first time, examined the frequency of extreme weather events in Israel, including prolonged heat waves and high rainfall intensities over short periods. The report presents pessimistic forecasts of the continuation of these trends in the coming decades.
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Temperature anomalies in Israel by 2100, measured in degrees Celsius
(Illustration: Israel Meteorological Service)
The report's authors predict that Israel will continue to warm should nothing change in the future, meaning greenhouse gas emissions resulting from the burning of fossil fuels like oil and gas will continue to cause global warming.
The report indicates the average temperature will continue to rise by 0.5°C-0.6°C per decade, and that the average temperature will be about 3.5°C higher than the average over the past 20 years by the end of the century.
The IMS noted this seemingly low number might be misleading, as it includes a high frequency of extreme heat events, which will make life in large areas of Israel unbearable to the point of being life-threatening.
For example, extreme heat events of 45°C and above on the coastal plain have so far been recorded only once a century. In the coming decades, they’re expected to take place once every 20 years, and by the end of the century once every three years on average. In hotter regions, such as the northern valleys and the Negev, the frequency of days recording 45°C heat will increase from once every 25 years to once every year and a half.
The report also indicated temperatures of 50°C and above, which have almost never been recorded in the region, will become possible and will occur every 15 years to 25 years near 2100. The Dead Sea and Arava Desert regions might suffer from such extreme heat every two years.
The IMS also said that the heat stress, which reflects the level of climatic discomfort for living and is determined by a combination of temperature and relative humidity, will rise by two degrees across all regions of the country.
This means that leaving air-conditioned spaces will be difficult to impossible by the end of the century. The frequency, intensity and duration of heat waves – a sequence of very hot days and nights – will significantly increase. Seven heat waves a year are expected by 2100, each lasting an average of 18 days and reaching peak temperatures of 45°C.
The IMS also found that the amount of rainfall is expected to decrease drastically by an average of 20%-25% compared to recent years by 2100. Such a severe decrease will lead to an increase in the frequency of droughts, a shortage of irrigation water and a lack of food.
While the expected annual rainfall is expected to decrease, an increase in rainfall intensity is expected as well, continuing a trend observed in recent decades. In the last 30 years, there has been an increase of up to 40% in heavy rain showers in Israel over short periods of 30-60 minutes.
"The results indicate a high rate of warming in Israel that could reach up to 5°C by the end of the century, compared to the situation in recent decades,” according to Israel Meteorological Service Director Dr. Amir Givati.
“The report also points to a sharp increase in the probability of extreme weather events: the intensity and duration of heat waves, extreme temperatures during the day and night and, on the other hand, an increase in heavy rain events and flooding. These trends require Israel to prepare for the climate changes that are already upon us,” he added.
And what is the government doing about this? At the beginning of July, the Environmental Protection Ministry published the first stage of the national plan for climate change readiness. However, some government ministries have yet to begin formulating such a plan.
The most important ministry, the Finance Ministry, hasn’t started to develop a plan at all. The same goes for the Prime Minister's Office, and the National Security, Interior and Strategic Affairs ministries.
Ministries that have begun initial preparation stages include the Labor, Settlement and National Missions, and others. Only 12 government ministries have submitted their climate change plans, including the Defense and Transportation ministries. The Health Ministry, whose functioning is critically affected by global warming, is in advanced planning stages.