Desertification is a global process threatening to dry out vast fertile lands across the planet. This pressing issue was a focal point of the first-ever United Nations Conference on Environment and Development, held in June 1992 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
At the conference, global leaders committed to addressing desertification through international collaboration and established an intergovernmental committee to draft a convention aimed at combating desertification and drought, particularly in vulnerable nations.
Global warming 1880 to 2020
(Video: NASA)
Now, over 30 years since the convention came into effect, a comprehensive report has revealed alarming findings. Between 1990 and 2020, 77.6% of the Earth’s surface experienced drier conditions compared to the previous three decades. Released the same week the European Union's climate service predicted that 2024 could become the hottest year on record, the report paints a stark picture: drylands expanded by approximately 4.3 million square kilometers—an area nearly one-third the size of India, the world’s seventh-largest country. Today, drylands account for 40.6% of the Earth’s land surface, excluding Antarctica.
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A dryed up water reservoir in the United States due to the extreme heat
(צילום: Tony Gutierrez, AP)
Lush, green landscapes are vanishing, replaced by arid, yellowing terrains with dry soils, a transformation with severe implications for agriculture, ecosystems and the people who depend on them. Without significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, an additional 3% of currently humid areas could become arid by the end of the century. Under extreme emissions scenarios, major regions such as the U.S. Midwest, central Mexico, northern Venezuela, northeastern Brazil, southeastern Argentina, the entire Mediterranean basin, the Black Sea coasts, large parts of southern Africa and southern Australia face a heightened risk of desertification.
“The findings illustrate Earth’s drying process for the first time using scientific tools, revealing the existential threat billions of people face worldwide,” said Ibrahim Thiaw, executive secretary of the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD). Unlike droughts, which are temporary periods of low rainfall, aridity signifies a permanent, unrelenting transformation that is reshaping life on Earth.
The report attributes this drying trend primarily to human-induced climate change. Between 1990 and 2020, 95.9% of Europe, significant portions of western North America, Brazil, East Asia and central Africa experienced worsening water shortages and persistent wildfires. While only 22.4% of the planet’s surface saw wetter conditions over the past three decades, the expansion of drylands signals a clear trajectory: ecosystems and communities are being pushed toward existential risk.
With the planet continuing to warm, projections indicate that up to 5 billion people could live in arid regions by the end of the century, facing dry soils, dwindling water supplies and the collapse of once-thriving ecosystems. This desiccation is expected to force families and entire communities to abandon their homes, fueling social and political challenges globally. The intensifying drought and aridity are already key drivers of human migration, particularly in hyper-arid areas of southern Europe, the Middle East, North Africa and South Asia—a trend likely to accelerate in the coming decades.
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By the end of the century, more than two-thirds of the Earth's lands (excluding Greenland and Antarctica) are expected to retain less water, even with moderate increases in greenhouse gas emissions. One-fifth of terrestrial regions could face sudden ecosystem transformations, such as forests becoming savannas or grasslands, leading to mass extinctions of plant and animal species and increased human health risks, particularly for women and children.
“Through innovative solutions and strengthened global solidarity, humanity can rise to this challenge. The question isn’t whether we have the tools—it’s whether we have the will to act,” said Dr. Barron Orr, chief scientist for the UNCCD.