A new study published in the journal Nature Aging has revealed that the exceptional rise in global life expectancy has been slowing for the past 30 years in countries where it is highest, challenging the conventional wisdom that life expectancy will continue to increase indefinitely.
The research, led by S. Jay Olshansky, a professor at the University of Illinois, Chicago, analyzed mortality data from 1990 to 2019 across the eight countries with the highest life expectancies at birth: Japan, South Korea, Australia, France, Italy, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland. The United States and Hong Kong were also included for comparison.
The study found that on average, these populations gained only 6.5 years of life expectancy over the thirty-year period, a significant deceleration compared to the unprecedented rate of increase during much of the 20th century. During that earlier period, life expectancy increased at a rate of three years per decade, largely due to major medical advances like increased sanitation and antibiotics, which allowed populations to live up to 30 years longer.
Researchers observed that the rate of improvement has slowed substantially, with life expectancy increases now below two years per decade in some countries. For instance, claim 88 notes that all populations experienced a deceleration in life expectancy increase starting in 2010, with the annual gain dropping below 0.2 years. In wealthier nations, this trend is particularly pronounced. Claim 28 states that in these countries, the trend of increasing life expectancy has substantially slowed, with a noticeable slowdown over the past thirty years.
S. Jay Olshansky remarked on the diminishing returns of medical advances on longevity, saying, "But we are starting to see a rise in dementia, sensory impairment and things that we are not able to manipulate quite as effectively as we would like," according to The Independent. He argues that traditional methods of combating disease are yielding smaller improvements in life expectancy. As claim 132 notes, "But these medical Band-Aids are producing fewer years of life even though they're occurring at an accelerated pace," reflecting a trend where modern medicine is yielding incrementally smaller improvements in longevity.
The study challenges earlier projections that most newborns today would live to 100 years or more. Claim 107 states that the authors wrote, "There is no evidence to support the suggestion that most newborns today will live to 100 years old," contradicting studies from the 1990s. Instead, the research suggests that it is "unlikely" that more than 15% of women and 5% of men will reach 100 years old this century, as noted in claim 64.
In Hong Kong, which has the highest life expectancy at birth at 85.5 years, the chances of women reaching 100 are the highest but still limited. Claim 146 reports that the most likely cohort to see a full century are women in Hong Kong, with a 12.8% chance. In other countries, the probabilities are even lower. For example, in Spain, the average probability of surviving to 100 years is 3.24%, as stated in claim 125.
The researchers attribute the slowdown to reaching a kind of "biological ceiling" in life expectancy improvements from modern medicine. Claim 56 mentions that humans appear to be hitting a biological limit to life, with evidence suggesting we have reached a kind of "biological ceiling" in countries with the highest life expectancy today. S. Jay Olshansky explained, "We can no longer achieve significant gains in average life expectancy by merely reducing diseases," according to Nature.
The study also highlights the need to shift focus from simply extending lifespan to improving healthspan—the number of years spent in good health. Claim 85 notes that addressing and reversing aging will be key to not only extending survival but ensuring that the added years are healthy ones. Stuart Jay Olshansky suggests that treatments should be tuned to improve our healthspan, proposing that the focus should shift to increasing the number of years spent in good health, as indicated in claim 86.
Despite the slowdown, the researchers see room for optimism in the emerging field of geroscience, which focuses on slowing the biological processes of aging. Claim 177 states that Stuart Jay Olshansky expects major discoveries and breakthroughs in geroscience to arrive in the near future, which could have important implications for social, health and economic policies.
However, Olshansky cautions against the exaggerated claims of radical life extension. He said, "And I wish folks would stop exaggerating and telling people they're all gonna live to 100 or 120 or 150—these sorts of claims of radical life extension associated with any of these interventions," according to Gizmodo.
The study's findings have significant implications for public health policy and future research. As noted in claim 187, the findings of this study have important implications for social, health and economic policies. The researchers emphasize the importance of continuing efforts to improve healthspan and address aging, rather than solely focusing on extending lifespan.
In conclusion, the new research reveals a significant slowdown in global life expectancy increases, challenging the assumption that the human lifespan will continue to extend indefinitely. The findings suggest that without significant progress in controlling the biological aging process, radical extensions of human life are unlikely in this century. Instead, the focus should shift to improving the quality of life for older people and extending the number of years spent in good health.
This article was written in collaboration with Generative AI news company Alchemiq
Sources: New York Post, Folha de S.Paulo, Gizmodo, The Independent, Nature, Helsingin Sanomat, TIME, LaVanguardia, La Nacion, Le Monde.fr, Health and Medicine, Health, 20 minutes