A ballistic missile launched toward central Israel by the Yemen-based Houthis could lead to an Israeli military response in an effort by the Jewish state to deter further attacks.
The attack on Monday was intercepted by the Israeli air defense system, causing no damage or injuries while sending tens of thousands of people to protected areas, but poses a dilemma for Israel on what its options are while facing the threat.
The Houthis, an Iranian-backed rebel group that operates in Yemen, joined the war on Israel, which was initiated by the Gaza-based Hamas terrorist organization in October of last year. Since the beginning of the war, the Houthis have fired over a dozen ballistic missiles and a larger number of drones. Israel has largely been successful at thwarting the attacks, except for one civilian death in the past summer from a Houthi drone attack on Tel Aviv.
In July and September, Israel launched widescale attacks against Houthi targets in Yemen, focusing on the Hodeida port, which is considered a lifeline for the terrorist group. The July offensive was the first time Israel directly hit Yemen. The attack achieved temporary quiet, with a lull in attacks from Yemen. However, in the past two months, the Houthis seem to have rekindled their efforts against Israel despite other fronts in the war against Israel becoming less active.
“The Houthis may be making calculations figuring that they can sustain an Israeli retribution once every few months while continuing to attack Israel,” according to Dr. Nachum Shiloh, a research fellow from the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University. “Unlike Gaza and Lebanon, where the Israeli Air Force can conduct hundreds of sorties a day, this is not the case in Yemen, which is approximately 2,000 kilometers away.”
“In their cost-benefit analysis, they want to implement their anti-Israeli, anti-American ideology while taking into account that Israel’s ability to hit them is limited,” Shiloh said, adding that Yemen’s impoverished population and under-developed economy make for very few valuable military targets to Israel.
“The price currently being exacted by Israel still allows the Houthis to continue attacking,” he explained.
“Our only option is to continue supporting and defending our oppressed brothers in Gaza until the aggression stops and the siege is lifted,” Hezam al-Asad, a member of the Houthi Supreme Political Council, posted on his X social media account on Tuesday.
According to Sharona Shir Zablodovsky, an expert on public policy and national security at the Dvorah Forum, the Houthis are banking on their distance from Israel.
“The geographical distance is an advantage because it allows them to be prepared for an attack,” she said. “But also, with Yemen’s failing economy, the Houthis have little to lose.”
Israeli media reported that defense officials have decided to attack Houthi targets again. While the damage from Houthi attacks has not been large-scale, the cost of thwarting ballistic missiles and unarmed vehicles (UAVs) is estimated at millions of dollars per interceptor, something Israel would like to avoid. In addition, and perhaps more importantly, Israeli air defense systems have been challenged by the UAV threat. The small vessels are often successful in evading sophisticated radar systems and have preoccupied state-of-the-art fighter jets engaged in often lengthy aerial pursuits.
“The threat from Yemen is more of a nuisance than a strategic one,” said Shiloh. “Israel has no problem intercepting the number of missiles currently fired from the Houthi, and while the drones have exposed a weak spot in Israel’s air defense, it is still something that is dealt with.”
There is no precise estimate of the number of missiles the Houthis possess. Still, several research institutions and think tanks believe they have a relatively wide array of missiles of varying ranges capable of carrying different types of warheads, including unconventional weapons.
The delay in Israel’s response to the Houthi threat is not only rooted in the relatively low price in terms of human life and the disruption to daily life but also in Israel’s entanglement in a multi-front war that has lasted over a year.
Currently, Israel is engaged in an active battle in the Gaza Strip against Hamas and maintaining a fragile cease-fire with the Hezbollah terrorist organization in Lebanon. There are hopes that a cease-fire with Hamas is imminent, and with a possible Israeli strike against Iran in the works, Israel may have chosen to contain the Houthi attacks until now. Israel is also waiting for US President Donald Trump to enter the White House in a month, something that will most certainly impact its ability to act in the Middle East and also may have motivated it towards containment.
“I am sure the Houthis are not first on Israel’s list of priorities,” said Shiloh.
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A Houthi drone struck an appartment building in Yavne in central Israel
(Photo: Meir Turgeman)
The Houthis have also staged frequent attacks in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden against international vessels, something the US and other Western powers have so far failed to halt. This has caused major disruptions in international trade. On Monday, the US military announced it had conducted an airstrike against a critical Houthi command and control center as part of that effort.
“The Houthi’s ability to harm international trade could lead to action by the US and other actors,” said Zablodovsky. “This could be beneficial to Israel. Such action, however, could also instigate Iran if its leadership feels like it is losing its grip.”
For years, the Houthis have been a menace to the region, attacking targets in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
Throughout the current conflict, the Houthis have said their attacks, both against Israeli and other targets, are an expression of solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza. Such was the Hezbollah’s rationale when it also joined the attack. The Houthis are largely funded and backed by Iran. Hezbollah and Hamas, both Iranian proxies of varying extent, have both been significantly hit by Israel. Israel’s attacks on the Houthis have so far failed to neutralize the threat, leaving the group to pose a nuisance to the Jewish state still.
Heavy plumes of smoke over Hodeidah port, Yemen after Israeli attack
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“Neither Iran nor its proxies should be underestimated or eulogized, even though they have been badly hit by Israel,” said Zablodovsky. “They still have abilities, as the Houthis proved earlier this week, and the Iranian regime will not give up so easily on its agenda.”
The Iranian leadership has frequently vowed to seek the destruction of Israel.
With Hezbollah and Hamas significantly weakened, the Houthis may see their mission against Israel as an even more pressing one.
While Israel reportedly prepares for a significant strike against the Houthis in Yemen, their motivation to continue to target Israel will remain.
“Such extreme ideological groups that define themselves as part of the resistance to Israel do not raise a white flag in surrender,” said Shiloh.