The road to October 7 began when President Joe Biden entered the White House, according to former U.S. Ambassador to Israel David Friedman. Friedman said that if President Donald Trump had still been in office, Israel would not have experienced the deadly attacks and would have achieved more regional alliances through additional Abraham Accords.
“When we left office, Iran was on the verge of bankruptcy,” Friedman, who served under Trump, said. “Qasem Soleimani, who had been their chief architect of terror, had been eliminated by the United States, imposing great fear and concern on the part of the mullahs. And then Biden comes in.”
Friedman criticized Biden for stopping the enforcement of sanctions on countries that trade with Iran, known as secondary sanctions.
“Iran began to sell oil in large amounts to China, to Russia, two of America’s greatest adversaries. Large, specific amounts. There was like a $6 billion gift here, a $10 billion gift there. That seemed to make no sense,” he said. “So what happened to Iran? Iran more than doubled its GDP in a couple of years by about $200 billion.”
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Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (L) and U.S. Ambassador David Friedman at the overlook near the West Bank city of Ariel
(Photo: GPO)
He said that Iran used that money to fund its many proxy groups, including Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, which are now engaged in a multifront war with Israel.
Under a Trump Administration, Friedman said, Iran would not have had the funds to prop up the various proxy groups. He also said that Trump would have continued the momentum of the Abraham Accords, the historic US-brokered agreement normalizing relations between Israel and four Arab nations.
“I think we needed about six months more in our administration to get the Saudis on our side,” Friedman said. He added that Indonesia and “some of the secondary Gulf nations” were also primed to achieve normalization with Israel.
Saudi Arabia, which once seemed to be on the cusp of normalizing relations with Israel, recently held military exercises with Iran. Friedman said that Saudi Arabia would stop cooperating with Iran if Trump is elected and it becomes clear that the US is “a partner that can push back against Iranian malign activity.”
“What people need to understand about the Abraham Accords is it wasn’t about showing these countries that we could move away from Israel. It was about showing these countries how closely we were aligned with Israel. That’s what made Israel the most attractive partner to the Gulf, that they were rock-solid aligned with the United States,” he explained, noting that once the U.S. relationship with Israel appeared less secure, alliance with Israel became less attractive to Gulf states.
Once the U.S. relationship with Israel appeared less secure, alliance with Israel became less attractive to Gulf states
Friedman’s book "Sledgehammer: How Breaking with the Past Brought Peace to the Middle East" was published before the October 7, 2023 attacks. Friedman said that many of the predictions he made in his book came true on October 7.
“What I thought then, and I think what’s been proven to be the case, is that the US-Israel alliance, at its strongest, is the fulcrum upon which you can then expand peace throughout the Middle East,” he said. As it weakens, those opportunities not only become less, but the potential for malign activity and mischief becomes greater.”
Biden’s strategy for the Middle East involved showing countries other than Israel that the U.S. was committed to “equal measures of peace, prosperity, dignity” throughout the entire region, Friedman said.
“They use that phrase, ‘equal measures,’ all the time,” he continued. “No. No. Israel is the single most important ally of the United States in the Middle East.” He said that broadcasting the centrality of Israel as the US’s ally in the Middle East would increase the chances of peace in the region.
Senator Lindsey Graham has pushed for achieving normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel during the Biden Administration. “I would love to see the details,” Friedman said of Graham’s plan. “It’s hard to comment on something which is just, at this point, aspirational.”
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US Ambassador to David Friedman (left) speaks with then-White House Middle East envoy Jason Greenblatt
(Photo: AFP)
Democrats also recently urged a probe into Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and former White House aide, alleging that he had acted as an agent of Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Friedman described that allegation as “complete nonsense.”
“Anything Jared Kushner does in that field is done for the good of America, with the support of America,” he said. “And I hope that he continues what he’s doing, because he developed levels of credibility with Saudi Arabia, with the Emirates, with others in the Gulf, that had never been achieved before.”
Earlier this month, a letter sent by Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to the Israeli government leaked to the press. In that letter, the U.S. threatens to withhold arms shipments if Israel doesn’t address the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.
Friedman expressed frustration with the Biden Administration’s threat of sanctions on Israel, including an embargo or slowed arms shipments critical for Israel’s defense in the ongoing conflict. He confirmed knowing the specific weapons involved but declined to elaborate, emphasizing his belief that these delays are “entirely political.”
He emphasized the significance of a swift and decisive Israeli victory in its current conflict, framing it as “essential” not only for Israel but also for the stability of Jordan, Egypt, and moderate Sunni Muslim nations. According to Friedman, US national security interests should support a clear win for moderates over extremists in the region.
Turning to US domestic politics, Friedman argued that Michigan holds critical weight in the upcoming 2024 presidential election, suggesting that without Michigan, Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, lacks a path to victory.
“They’re in the process of losing Michigan, and what they did here, I think, was to sway those in Dearborn and other places,” he asserted.
Friedman criticized the Biden Administration, asserting that “politics has infected the national security decisions,” leading to negative consequences. In his view, while President Biden has not demonstrated the capacity to end the conflict swiftly, Trump is seen by some voters as able to achieve that goal, which may influence the election outcome in Michigan.
Asked about Trump’s habit of making derogatory comments and offensive statements, Friedman urged people offended by the former president’s words to 'get over it'
He noted a recent shift, where a group of Muslim imams endorsed Donald Trump, citing his perceived ability to “stop the killing” and end the war. He explained that this endorsement didn’t reference Israel directly but suggested urgency in conflict resolution.
“That doesn’t mean that Israel should somehow be held back in its efforts to win the war, but it should be done quickly, decisively, and let’s start the rebuilding process,” he said.
Israel will struggle to improve its public image until the war comes to an end, Friedman said.
“Once it’s over, you can make the case, look, this is what we did,” he said. “This is what had to be done. Efforts were made to minimize civilian suffering. We are rebuilding, and this is what the future will look like. I think in the absence of a vision going forward, it’s hard to get people all that interested in your side of the case.”
Friedman said that Trump will likely receive between 30% and 40% of the Jewish vote, which would be a historically high level of Jewish support for the Republican candidate.
Many Jews who support Harris simply have priorities other than Israel, Friedman said. “But then there are others who really just want to self-rationalize the idea that Kamala Harris will be better for Israel or better at fighting antisemitism than Trump,” he said. “I don’t think there’s any intellectually honest way to get there.”
Friedman discussed Trump’s 2019 executive order that expanded Title VI of the US Code to include protections for Jewish students from anti-Semitic conduct at universities. This expansion means that universities receiving federal funding must ensure the safety of their Jewish students or risk losing financial support. “And almost all universities get some form of federal funding,” he said.
According to Friedman, this is an “enormously important” tool that remains in place under President Biden but is not being enforced.
“You can’t get tenure on a major American university if you’re pro-Israel,” Friedman asserted. “We’ve seen that over and over again. And this is the breeding ground for the leaders of America for the next 20, 30, 40 years.”
He argued that the federal government could pressure institutions like Harvard, Yale, and Columbia by threatening their funding, which he believes would prompt swift changes, saying, “follow the money, you figure out where the incentives lie.”
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U.S. envoy to Israel David Friedman during the annual Birkat Kohanim (Priestly Blessing) as part of Sukkot holiday
(Photo: AFP)
Friedman highlighted the broader impact of universities as “the breeding ground for the leaders of America” and described the lack of pro-Israel perspectives in academia as a critical issue for the country’s future. He called for expanding law enforcement, particularly around immigration laws, asserting that many agitators are foreign nationals. While Friedman expressed doubt in changing “the hearts and minds of anti-Semites,” he emphasized that enforcing existing laws could address these issues. This, he explained, is one of the key measures Trump would prioritize to “change things very quickly” if reelected, ensuring universities comply with laws protecting Jewish students.
Asked about Trump’s habit of making derogatory comments and offensive statements, Friedman urged people offended by the former president’s words to “get over it.”
“He’s made America a stronger country, a more prosperous country, a more respected country,” he said. “He’s been able to export American values throughout the world, throughout some of our most challenging places within the world. He’s feared in places like North Korea and Russia. And he stood up to China like no president before or after. You don’t like something he said, get over it.”
Friedman said he was “really nervous” about a world in which Trump isn’t elected.
“Who’s going to deal with making sure Israel has the weapons it needs to defend itself? The only thing Kamala Harris has ever said that’s in favor of Israel is that they have the right to defend themselves,” he said. “I’d like her to point to any country in the world that, after it’s been attacked, doesn’t have the right to defend itself. It’s a meaningless platitude. Where she goes with that, I don’t know. I don’t think she really believes in the cause, in the ultimate justice of a Jewish state.”
In his recently published book, "One Jewish State: The Last, Best Hope to Resolve the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict," Friedman argues for a one-state solution where Israel would hold sovereignty over Judea and Samaria, the West Bank. This stance marks a shift from his previous support for a two-state solution, though he clarifies that even then, his vision included strict security controls by Israel over Palestinian territories—a model Palestinians rejected. He attributes his change in perspective to several factors:
The first factor, he said, was the Palestinian response to the 2020 Trump peace plan, “which was complete, unadulterated rejection.”
“Then along comes October 7, in which we see the capacity of Palestinians for hatred and brutality,” he said. “And then you look at the polls of Judea and Samaria, of the Palestinians living there, and the aftermath, where like 80-plus percent of them were in favor of what Hamas did on October 7. So you take the Palestinian rejectionism, their support for October 7, and you then say, OK, this has changed the way I think.”
Friedman recalls a pivotal conversation with a secular Israeli entrepreneur who initially seemed indifferent about retaining historically significant areas like Shiloh. After learning about Shiloh’s biblical heritage, the entrepreneur changed his view, affirming the importance of retaining the site. Inspired by this interaction, Friedman wrote his book to appeal to Israel’s political left, presenting his case for Israeli sovereignty as the best path for Palestinian welfare and stability.
“The best outcome is Israeli sovereignty over all of Judea and Samaria, because there is no other governing body,” he said. “Look around and look around the region. You know, there’s no other governing body that has a track record of empowering an Arab minority other than Israel.”
According to Friedman, Israel’s governance has offered opportunities to its Arab citizens, pointing to Arab participation in elite universities, health care, and business in Israel. He argues this model benefits Palestinians more than self-governance, which, he says, was a failed experiment in Gaza, leading to resources being diverted to conflict.
“What did they do with their independence, right? What did they do with the money that was given to them? They squandered it all on terror tunnels and weapons of mass destruction,” Friedman said. “So why go through this experiment again when Israel has a proven track record of running an Arab minority?”
Friedman has not yet presented these ideas to Trump or the moderate Muslim states, noting that his focus is on influencing Israeli opinion. He believes that for any U.S. policy shift, it is crucial to have Israeli consensus on the approach. The book, he adds, was recently translated into Hebrew to broaden its reach in Israel.
Friedman’s plan does not provide an answer for the 2 million people living in Gaza.
“It’s a long-term solution,” he said. “We’re not ready yet for a long-term solution to Gaza. Gaza is entirely a short-term problem. You know, people need houses. They need to eat. I mean, these are issues that, until you deal with them, you don’t deal with the One Jewish State issues.”
Despite the ongoing war and the hostages still held in Gaza, Israel is better off now than it was before the war broke out, Friedman said.
“My analogy has always been to take two people who had serious cancer on October 6,” he said. “They don’t know it yet. They feel fine. But they’ve got cancer growing inside of them. And over the course of the next year, one discovers it, goes through chemotherapy, suffers through it, has a very difficult time. It’s now a year later, not completely out of the woods, but starting to get good test results, starting to get, you know, the PET scans and the CAT scans are showing that the cancer has shrunk. In some cases, it’s been eliminated. The other guy still feels fine, right? Now, you compare these two people a year out, right? In the USA, you’re a life insurance company, right? Who do you want to write a policy on? Who’s healthier?”
Similarly, he said, Israel has come to terms with the unsustainable situation on its borders and taken steps to address it.
Asked about what role he might take in a new Trump Administration, Friedman expressed his willingness to rejoin the government, especially in the wake of recent events impacting Israel. He described a desire to help Israel heal from the trauma of October 7 and said he would again accept the role as ambassador if Trump is reelected and offers it to him.
“I want to help Israel get back on its feet,” he said, adding that he also hopes to “help America restore its credibility within the world.”
Friedman emphasized his belief that America is uniquely positioned to lead globally, warning that if the US doesn’t take that role, “the world quickly devolves to a very bad place.”
“I want to help America restore its credibility within the world,” he said. “Of all the superpowers, regional and worldly, America’s the only country with the values that really make it suitable to lead the world.”
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