A hostage deal is looming, expected to coincide with President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20. But hopes for the release of all 100 Israeli hostages are fading fast. Despite any concessions Israel may offer, experts warn the chances of bringing everyone home are slim — a sobering reality in the aftermath of the devastating October 7 attacks.
“I always talk about the release of hostages rather than the release of the hostages,” cautioned professional negotiator Moty Cristal, a seasoned expert who served on Israeli negotiation teams with Jordan and the Palestinians from 1994 to 2001.
For the past 16 months, Qatar, Egypt and the United States have been working tirelessly to broker a hostage-for-cease-fire deal aimed at ending the war and securing the return of Israeli captives. Their efforts have so far yielded only one breakthrough: a week-long pause in November 2023, during which 80 Israeli hostages and about two dozen others were freed in exchange for nearly 250 Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails.
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Calling for the hostages to be released at Hostages' Square in Tel Aviv
(Photo: Tal Shahar)
On Monday, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken expressed cautious optimism, stating that a deal was within reach. However, he acknowledged that it might only materialize after President Joe Biden leaves office under Donald Trump's administration.
Speaking in Seoul, Blinken emphasized: “We very much want to bring this over the finish line in the next two weeks,” adding that any agreement would align with Biden’s plan, which has garnered broad international support.
Biden’s proposal calls for an end to the fighting in Gaza, where Israel has spent 16 months dismantling Hamas’ military infrastructure. The campaign followed the brutal October 7 massacre, during which over 6,000 Gazans – half of them armed terrorists – stormed into Israel, killing more than 1,200 people. Another 251 Israelis and foreign nationals were abducted and taken into Gaza. Today, 96 hostages remain, in addition to four Israelis captured and killed in earlier conflicts, including Lt. Hadar Goldin and 1st Sgt. Oren Shaul. The IDF estimates that at least a third of the remaining captives are dead.
On Monday, a Saudi news agency leaked a list of hostages reportedly slated for release in the first phase of any agreement. The list included women, children, elderly individuals, and those in poor health. However, it was unclear which of the people on the list were alive or dead.
The Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) quickly clarified that the list, widely circulated in the media, had not been provided by Hamas. Instead, Israel originally shared it with mediators back in July 2024.
“As yet, Israel has not received any confirmation or comment from Hamas regarding the status of the hostages on the list,” the PMO stated.
However, an Israeli source later told a local outlet that Hamas had indeed passed on a list of hostages. In addition, on Sunday, a Hamas official, speaking to Reuters, insisted that any agreement would still have to hinge on Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza and the establishment of a permanent cease-fire.
The challenge, experts say, is that even if Hamas wanted to return all the hostages, it might not be able to. Gershon Baskin, director of the International Communities Organization Middle East and a negotiator involved in the 2011 release of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit from Hamas captivity, is certain of this.
“I 500% believe Hamas doesn’t know where all the hostages are,” he said.
“There’s no reason to doubt that,” Baskin explained. “Hamas controls very little of the Gaza Strip. Most of it – 80% of the buildings – has been bombed or destroyed. Thousands of Gazans are missing, buried under rubble, with their families having no idea where they are. The hostages are likely buried under the rubble as well.”
Complicating matters, not all the hostages were taken by Hamas. Other terrorist organizations abducted some, while others were seized by civilians unaffiliated with any group. Since the IDF began operations in Gaza, Hamas’s central command has been dismantled. According to Baskin, the group now lacks any functional communication system – digital or analog – to coordinate with its members.
Hamas itself admitted in September that it needed a week of cease-fire just to locate the hostages. Baskin believes this was no exaggeration. Tragically, he added, it’s highly probable that some hostages’ bodies will never be recovered, leaving their fates forever unknown.
However, even if the hostages could be located, it is unlikely that Israel can or will agree to the terms Hamas would demand to release everyone: a total cease-fire and the withdrawal of Israeli troops from the Gaza Strip.
Cristal explained that throughout the history of hostage negotiations, one golden rule was consistently followed: The release of Israeli hostages was always exchanged for Palestinian prisoners.
“It was always kept on the humanitarian level – purely people for people,” Cristal said. “Any attempt to provide additional considerations – political considerations, like territory or any other consideration – was rejected by Israel.”
This approach changed in February 2024 when the Biden administration linked the release of hostages to a cease-fire agreement, pressuring Israel to accept the plan.
“By linking the release of prisoners to the end of the war, you actually gave a structure of veto power to both [Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu and Hamas,” Cristal said.
Ending the war completely is not in Israel’s national interest because Hamas remains a significant threat in both Gaza and the West Bank, despite Israel’s efforts to weaken it. Israel will, for a long time if not forever, need to maintain military pressure to deter the organization and protect its citizens. Cristal explained that tying hostage releases to a full cessation of hostilities ensures either that no deal will ever be reached or that Hamas will perpetually hold bodies or live hostages as bargaining chips to halt Israeli military action.
“That is the root of a bad deal – a really bad deal,” Cristal said. “We will need to live with many, many Ron Arads, Goldins, and Shauls.”
Ron Arad was an Israeli Air Force officer who disappeared during a mission over Lebanon in 1986 and is believed to have been captured by terrorists before being handed over to Hezbollah.
Cristal argued that Israel could have secured the hostages' release through smaller, incremental deals. Critics of partial agreements say they are immoral because they leave some hostages behind. However, Cristal countered, “I say, take out whoever you can, whenever you can. But that was not the paradigm” proposed by Biden and Blinken, he said. Instead, their approach has prolonged both the negotiations and the war.
Now, with Donald Trump preparing to take office, the paradigm is shifting once again.
On Monday night, Trump warned again that Hamas will “have hell to pay” if it fails to release the hostages. In the Middle East, Trump is perceived as a strong leader, even in parts of the Arab world.
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Gershon Baskin noted that the Biden administration never had significant leverage over Hamas and has not fully utilized the leverage it has over Israel. Trump, while also having minimal influence over Hamas, is expected to exert greater albeit covert pressure on Israel. Both Baskin and Cristal predict that Trump will push Israel to declare an end to the war in exchange for the release of most living hostages and some bodies.
This outcome could be temporary and will likely leave some hostages behind.
Cristal suggested that the intensification of negotiations is less about Hamas’ weakness or desire to end the war and more about the mounting pressure on Netanyahu. He may now feel compelled to finalize a deal that could be credited to Trump by or shortly after January 20.
“Netanyahu might be willing to make compromises that he wasn’t willing to make until now [for Trump],” Baskin explained. “What’s different now from everything in the past few months is January 20.”
“The entrance of Trump might be what clinches a deal,” he concluded.
This article is written by Maayan Hoffman and reprinted with permission from The Media Line