Thirty years into the fragile peace between Israel and Jordan, scenes of instability in Syria have raised concerns within the government and defense echelon that a similar scenario in the Hashemite Kingdom would spill over into Israel. Peace between the two neighbors has almost always been characterized by tension and a tricky balance between political interests and conflicting loyalties.
Israel’s engagement in a lengthy regional war, which began over a year ago when the Gaza-based Hamas terrorist group stunned Israel in a massive attack, has further challenged the relationship. Throughout the war, there have been demonstrations in front of Israel’s embassy in the Jordanian capital of Amman.
Jordan sent humanitarian aid to Gaza during this period on several occasions, another sign of the constant efforts to maneuver between a highly pro-Palestinian public sentiment and its pro-Western alliance with both Israel and the United States.
“Jordan was always considered the weakest and most unstable actor in the region, and yet the most stable at the same time,” Cl. Res. Ron Schatzberg, the Economic Cooperation Foundation co-director and an expert on Israel-Jordan relations, said. “Its strength lies in its weakness, and its government shows a certain openness to extremist elements in order to allow them to vent while applying substantial covert intelligence efforts to contain them.”
The ripple effects of the fall of the Bashar Assad regime at the hands of the extreme Islamist movements in Syria could potentially reach Jordan. This event would have a dramatic impact on Israel. Jordan’s strategic position in the region has everyone eyeing it.
Earlier this week, Israeli media reported that the heads of the Secret Service and the military intelligence unit visited Jordan to discuss the latest regional developments and their implications.
The two countries share a 480-kilometer-long border, which is Israel’s longest. It is estimated that around half of Jordan’s population is of Palestinian descent, making relations with Israel a contentious issue in the Hashemite Kingdom. Throughout the decades-long Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Jordan has tried to position itself as the guardian of the Palestinian cause.
There have been numerous attempts throughout the war to smuggle weapons into Israel, mostly from Syria, through the border aimed at reaching Palestinians in the West Bank in order to carry out attacks in Israel.
In recent months, there have been several attacks along the border, including the murder of three Israeli border crossing employees shot dead by a Jordanian terrorist. According to data from the Israeli Population and Immigration Authority, there has been an increase in the number of illegal infiltrations through the border with Jordan in recent years. The fence along the lengthy border is incomplete, and the topography, sometimes mountainous but filled with tangled flora, makes surveillance challenging.
“There have been numerous attempts throughout the war to smuggle weapons into Israel, mostly from Syria, through the border aimed at reaching Palestinians in the West Bank in order to carry out attacks in Israel,” Dr. Ofir Winter, Senior Researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) at Tel Aviv University, said. “Iran has been trying to undermine the Jordanian regime in order to make Jordan another arena in its ‘axis of resistance’ against Israel.”
Israeli media has reported that the army is acting in order to upgrade its presence along the porous border, including improving the barrier there and establishing a new brigade solely dedicated to the area.
Jordan also has borders with Syria, Saudi Arabia and Iraq, each hostile to Israel in varying degrees.
Amer Sabaileh, a political analyst from Jordan, noted that while “we cannot deny” that these incidents have occurred, “to take these steps just from the Israeli side... It means that they are applying unilateral positions to the Jordanian government.”
“It's obvious that Israelis today are thinking just individually, let's say, about their security and about the need to see this moment of what's going on in the Middle East, or in the front, where the people can go in, that they need to secure and fall under the fear of having another presence at the table,” Sabaileh continued.
It means, unfortunately, that what they might be doing does not show that this comes to the country with whom they share a peace treaty.
“It means, unfortunately, that what they might be doing does not show that this comes to the country with whom they share a peace treaty. It's something that they do just for themselves, securing themselves without caring too much about who is attempting the other side.”
Adding to the complexities of the relationship, Jordan has custodianship over a holy site in Jerusalem, under contested Israeli sovereignty, highlighting the importance of the relationship and its delicacy. Called the Temple Mount by Jews and the Noble Sanctuary by Muslims, it is a hot spot holy to both Jews and Muslims and is at the core of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
There are limits to Jewish visitation near the compound, including a prohibition against Jewish prayer. These limits have been tested repeatedly by Jewish nationalists in recent years and in the past two years, especially since the swearing-in of Israel’s most far-right government to govern. As ultra-nationalist elements are a cornerstone of the current coalition led by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, relations between Amman and Jerusalem have become increasingly strained.
Relations between Netanyahu and Jordanian King Abdullah II were tumultuous even before the current government came to power. Over the years, there have been reports of the Jordanian king refusing to take calls from the Israeli premier. Despite the tensions often accompanying poor relations, diplomatic and security ties have continued throughout the years.
“The personal tension between the two leaders rose during the war because of the increasing difficulty Jordan had maneuvering between its strategic need to maintain the peace agreement with Israel and the public demand to annul it,” said Winter.
Sabaileh said that he believes “peace on the Jordanian and different sides is peace by obligation.” When comparing the Kingdom to other countries in the region, he stated, "The Emirates model is a different model and different concept because they don't share borders.”
“They don't have heritage that's complex. It's just they decide the peace, so it's much easier.”
Winter noted that “Jordan is especially sensitive to any development in the Palestinian arena due to its demographic make-up and the influence of the Muslim Brotherhood in the Kingdom.”
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Jordanian protesters hold up signs reading 'death to Israel'
(Photo: Alaa Al Sukhni / Reuters)
According to Winter, there are several reasons for the increased friction between the two. First, there is concern that the war in Gaza will spill over into the territories under Palestinian control in the West Bank.
Extreme ultra-nationalist voices in the Netanyahu government have called for the establishment of a Palestinian state in Jordan. This move would allow them to expel West Bank Palestinians.
“The greatest fear of the Hashemite Kingdom is the people in Israel who believe Jordan should be a Palestinian state,” said Schatzberg. “In the eyes of the Jordanian regime, the establishment of a Palestinian state in the West Bank would guarantee the survival of the Jordanian kingdom.”
According to Schatzberg, instability in the Palestinian West Bank, which borders Jordan, is perceived as a far greater threat to its stability than scenarios similar to what was witnessed in neighboring Syria earlier this month.
“There isn’t a lot of appetite for such an overthrow in Jordan, which saw how often in the Arab Spring governments were replaced by even more oppressive governments,” he said. “However, there is always fear that there will be extremist elements who will take advantage of a population in a dire financial situation.
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National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir on Temple Mount
(Photo: Temple Mount Directorate)
Netanyahu and his coalition partners rule out the establishment of a Palestinian state, a position that many Israelis have increasingly adopted in the wake of Hamas’ attack on Israel last year.
In addition, Jordan is concerned by the erosion of the status quo in the Jerusalem holy site. But also, it has a difference of opinion with Israel regarding the fate of Gaza at the end of the war. While Israel refuses to accept the return of the Palestinian Authority (PA), which currently controls the West Bank, to Gaza, Jordan views the PA as the leading candidate to rule the territory.
“There is no immediate threat to Jordan’s stability,” Winter explained. “But any instability could pose a direct threat to Israel’s national security. Jordan and Israel have close security cooperation, and Jordan serves as a buffer between Israel and potential threats from Iran, its proxies and Islamist, pro-Palestinian elements. Any destabilization along the border will require Israel to deploy more forces in order to protect the border, which will be a significant burden, both in terms of its defense and financially.”
Definitely, problems can arise. We have a difficult economic situation. We have desperation as well. But I don’t think that the same elements that make Syria collapse quickly are there in Jordan.
Sabaileh agreed with the sentiment. “Definitely, problems can arise. We have a difficult economic situation. We have desperation as well. But I don't think that the same elements that make Syria collapse quickly are there in Jordan.”
In May and September of this year, when Iran attacked Israel directly with a barrage of missiles and drones, Jordan played an instrumental role in thwarting the attack. Criticized by pro-Palestinians and Arab states opposed to Israel, it was a position Jordan adopted without giving it much publicity, as it has done regarding much of its cooperation with Israel.
“The whole relationship is kept under the radar by the Jordanians,” said Schatzberg. “The more the relations with Israel are in the headlines, it creates unrest amongst the public. The Palestinians in Jordan are always suspicious of the regime, its degree of cooperation with Israel and to what extent it actually looks out for Palestinian interests.”
- Giorgia Valente contributed to this report